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  • 《计算机行业:历史低位静待基本面拐点-240920(103页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《计算机行业:历史低位静待基本面拐点-240920(103页).pdf(103页珍藏版)》请在本站上搜索。 1、证 券 研 究 报 告历史低位,静待基本面拐点历史低位,静待基本面拐点2024.09.20中泰证券中泰证券 中中 泰泰 证证 券券 研研 究究 所所 专专 业业|领领 先先|深深 度度|诚诚 信信ZHONGTAI SECURITIES分析师:闻学臣执业证书编号:S0740519090007联系人:刘一哲联系人:刘一哲分析师:何柄谕执业证书编号:S0740519090003联系人:王雪晴联系人:王雪晴分析师:苏仪执业证书编号:S0740520060001 上半年板块调整幅度大,估值和持仓均处于历史低位上半年板块调整幅度大,估值和持仓均处于历史低位。年初时在小微盘股流动性危机下,计算机行业指数在Q2、1 内经历 了暴跌与暴涨式修复。4月以来,计算机板块整体经营基本面持续承压,整体营收与盈利修复表现相对较弱,主动型投 资机构对计算机行业的配置力度持续降低,至24Q2 末已创10年来新低配比,计算机(申万)指数也随之持续下探,并 于8月多次创下2018年以来的指数新低,计算机行业估值水平亦一路下探。后周期属性显现,后周期属性显现,整体基本面增长乏力。整体基本面增长乏力。2022024年以来宏观经济整体延续低迷的景气度,计算机行业作为后周期行业,其经营情况开始受到经济增长放缓的影响,在24H1内呈现出收入、利润均承压的情况,且Q2经营情况要更差于Q1。24H1 计算机公司营收、归母净利润的增速中3、位数分别为1.59%/-15.58%。短期来看,我们认为计算机全行业的基本面 修复仍需时日,业绩拐点仍需等待。结构角度:跨周期科技赛道经营景气度较高,传统信息化需求赛道承压明显。结构角度:跨周期科技赛道经营景气度较高,传统信息化需求赛道承压明显。分行业来看,以国产替代为主因的政策 驱动类行业(工业软件、信创、能源IT)、新兴产业需求爆发期的行业(算力、智能出行)作为逆周期乃至跨周期的科 技赛道,在24H1 体现出了一定的下游景气度,相关行业的信息化公司在24H1 也有较为不错的业绩表现;传统行业信息 化赛道则在24H1 受到下游景气度不佳的影响,其业绩明显承压。中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI4、 SECURITIES投资要点投资要点2口 短期重点关注政策驱动方向:短期重点关注政策驱动方向:信创方向:在科技自立自强的大战略下,预期党政、行业、央国企信创都有望迎来边际好转,建议关注的细分领域包 括括ERP(普联软件、金蝶国际、用友网络、赛意信息等),工业软件(中望软件、索辰科技、华大九天、概伦电子、广联达、浩辰软件等),数据库(达梦数据、太极股份、星环科技等),办公(金山办公、彩讯股份、福昕软件等),操作系统(中国软件、诚迈科技、麒麟信安等);车路云、低空经济和财税:系列政策持续推出,相关订单有望相继落地,车路云建议关注万集科技、千方科技、通行 宝、易华录、中科创达、经纬恒润、德赛西威等5、,低空经济建议关注莱斯信息、中科星图、三未信安、信安世纪、超 图软件、航天宏图等,财税建议关注税友股份、博思软件、中科江南等。口 中期重点关注人工智能方向,中期重点关注人工智能方向,以智算中心、AI PC、Al手机为代表的前后端基础设施正在快速构建,大模型性能在提升、价格在下降,预计AI应用即将迎来大规模落地。算力方向:当前基本面有望延续高景气态势,建议关注浪潮信息、神州数码、中科曙光、海光信息、首都在线、云天 励飞、紫光股份等;模型方向:模型方向:建议关注科大讯飞、格灵深瞳、商汤、云从科技等;应用方向:应用方向:金融场景建议关注恒生电子、顶点软件、同花顺、中科软、宇信科技、百融云、京北方、天6、阳科技、长亮 科技、新致软件等;医疗场景建议关注卫宁健康、创业慧康、嘉和美康、医渡科技、鹰瞳科技等;工业场景建议关注 广联达、明源云、国能日新、东方电子、云鼎科技、朗新集团等;其他建议关注焦点科技、万兴科技、萤石网络、鼎 捷软件、拓尔思、佳发教育、神思电子、鸥玛软件、金桥信息等;安全方向:安全方向:建议关注深信服、启明星辰、国投智能、天融信、绿盟科技、迪普科技、安恒信息、安博通、盛邦安全、永信至诚、亚信安全、奇安信等。中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES投资建议投资建议3 AIAI 等底层技术变革不及预期;等底层技术变革不及预期;下游客户IT支出意愿与力度不及预期;政策落地不7、及预期;政策落地不及预期;行业竞争加剧;行业竞争加剧;研报信息更新不及时的风险等。研报信息更新不及时的风险等。风险提示风险提示中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES4计算机当前市场表现计算机板块整体业绩总结 计算机不同赛道业绩总结 投资建议与风险提示目录CONTENT S计算机当前市场表现计算机当前市场表现1.1.124H11.1.124H1 计算机计算机(申万申万)指数整体持续下行指数整体持续下行年初时在小微盘股流动性危机下,计算机(申万)指数在Q1 内经历了暴跌与暴涨式修复。4月以来,计算机板块整体 经营基本面持续承压,整体营收与盈利修复表现相对较弱,计算机(申万)指数也随8、之持续下探,并于8月多次创下 2018年以来的指数新低。截至2024年9月20日,计算机(申万)指数为2976.67点,2024年内下跌29.48%。图表:2018年至今计算机(申万)指数走势 计算机(申万)70006500600055005000450040003500300025002000资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:统计区间为2018/1/1-2024/9/20)中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES1.1.21.1.2计算机计算机(申万申万)PEPE 估值持估值持续下行续下行在经历了Q1 内行情的暴跌与暴涨式修复后,因行业整体基本面并未见到明显修复与改善,29、424 Q2Q2 以来计算机行业的的PEPE 估值水平一路下探且屡创近期新低。截至2024年9月20日,计算机(申万)指数的PE-TTM估值为45.06 倍。图表:2018年至今计算机(申万)指数PE 走势(TTM 规则)资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:统计区间为2018/1/1-2024/9/20)8800070006000500040003000200010000中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES 47.62X 56.28X 64.94X 收盘价 38.96 X22/04/0223/07/0221/07/0221110/0222/01/0222/0710222/10、10/0223/01/0223/04/0224/01/0224/07/0223/10/0224/04/0220/01/0220/04/0221/01/0221/04/0220/10/0220/07/0219/04/0218/01/0218/10/0219/01/0219/10/0218/04/0218/07/0219/07/02收盘价 2.34X 2.86X 3.38X 3.9X800070006000500040003000200010000 与PE 估值一样,在经历了Q1 内行情的暴跌与暴涨式修复后,因行业整体基本面并未见到明显修复与改善,24Q2 以来计算机行业的PS 估值水平也一路下探11、且屡创近期新低。截至2024年9月19日,计算机(申万)指数的PS估值降至2.29 倍。图表:2018年至今计算机(申万)指数PS 走势1.1.31.1.3计算机计算机(申万申万)PSPS 估值亦持续下行估值亦持续下行资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所资料(注:统计区间为2018/1/1-2024/9/20)9中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES22/04/0224/01/0221/07/0222/01/0222/07/0222/10/0223/01/0223/04/0223/07/0223/10/0224/04/0224/07(0221110/0220/01/0220/0412、/0221/04/0220/07/0220/10/0221/01/0219/04/0218/01/0218/04/0219/01/0219/07/0219/10/0218/07/0218/10/021 1 .2 2 机机 构构 持持 续续 减减 配配 计计 算算 机机 ,行行 业业 持持 仓仓 占占 比比 降降 至至 新新 低低 2023年开年,在AI、信创、数据要素、经济基本面修复预期的四重推动下,机构对计算机行业的配置比例较高,但随 着经济恢复不及预期,计算机公司整体基本面开始承压,2023年下半年起,机构对计算机行业的配置比例持续下降。2024年计算机公司基本面承压、营收与盈利修复较弱的13、特点持续凸显,机构对计算机行业的配置比例进一步下降。24H1末,主要的主动型机构对计算机行业的配置持仓比例已降至3.56%,显著低于23H1末的7.36%。以半年度为统计 维度,3.56%的持仓配比也创2013年以来的最低占比。图表:2013年以来主动型投资机构对计算机行业的持仓占比(统计周期:半年度)一 计算机行业主动型机构持仓占比14%12%10%8%6%4%3.56%2%0%13H1 13H2 14H1 14H215H1 15H2 16H1 16H2 17H1 17H2 18H1 18H219H1 19H2 20H1 20H2 21H1 21H222H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 214、4H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:所选用的主动型投资机构包括基金、基金管理公司、券商、券商集合理财四类)10中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES计算机板块整体业绩总计算机板块整体业绩总结结2.12.1收入端:收入端:2424H1H1 计算机计算机(申万申万)指数整体收入指数整体收入为为54705470亿元亿元 24H1,计算机(申万)指数内所有成份股总计实现营业收入5470亿元,同比增长12.13%,主要是受神州数码、上海 钢联、浪潮信息、软通动力、德赛西威、科大讯飞等收入占比较高的公司影响。图表:2018-2024年上半年计算机(申万)指数整体营收表现(单位:亿15、元)76112020 2021 2022 2023120001025554702024H1118121078380006000400020000中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES7076201962262018资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所总营收1400010000122.12.1收入端:承压明显,边收入端:承压明显,边际增速下降际增速下降我们选取计算机我们选取计算机(申万申万)指数为样本,并剔除其中北交所、指数为样本,并剔除其中北交所、*STST 股票,对剩下成份股采用中位数法进行分股票,对剩下成份股采用中位数法进行分析析。分析结果显示,24H1计算机行业收入端承压明16、显,边际增速呈持续下降趋势。24H1样本计算机标的的收入增速中位 数为1.59%,较去年同期的5.18%继续放缓。同时,以半年度为统计单位,24H1 为计算机行业增速中位数连续第三个 下降区间,其增速中位数近五年来仅略高于20H1和22H2。图表:2019-24H1 计算机(申万)成份股收入增速中位数变化趋势 图表:2019-24H1计算机(申万)成份股收入增速中位数变化趋势(半年度统计)一半年度营收增速中位数30%24.60%25%20%14.60%14.09%15%11.33%8%6%4%2%0%2019 2020资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)资17、料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)1318.23%8.96%10%5%0%19H1 19H2-5%一一营收增速中位数16.78%40%2021 202217%20H1 20H2 21H1中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES8.45%21H220%18%16%14%12%10%1.59%2024H13.77%20235.18%23H14.31%22H12.91%23H21.59%24H10.13%22H214%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%22Q12Q222Q322Q 423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2-2%-4%2.1218、.1收入端:承压明显,边际增速下降收入端:承压明显,边际增速下降同样采取上述样本选取方法,我们对计算机行业的单季度营收进行了分析。24Q224Q2 计算机行业样本成分股的营收增速中位数为0.83%,增速环比持续下降,且自2022年以来仅高于22Q2 和22Q4,而这两个季度的营收增速中位数均为负值。图 表:2 2 Q 1-2 4 Q 2 计 算 机(申 万)成 份 股 收 入 增 速 中 位 数 变 化 趋 势(单 季 度 统 计)一 单季度营收增速中位数资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)14中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES2.2毛19、利端:24H1毛利增速下降,且慢于同期营收增速我们选取计算机(申万)指数为样本,并剔除其中北交所、*ST股票,对剩下成份股采用中位数法进行分析。24H1 计算机上市公司整体毛利表现持续承压,24H1计算机(申万)指数(剔除北交所、*ST 股票)的成份股毛利增速 中位数为0.08%,半年度维度上仅高于20H1和22H2,且慢于同期营收增速。中 泰 证 券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES一半年度毛利增速中位数20.49%14.05%7.42%5%0%19H1 19H2 20H2 21H1-5%-2.90%0.65%22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2-4.10%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券20、研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST标的)1525%20%15.77%15%10%图表:2019-24H1计算机(申万)成份股毛利增速中位数变化趋势(半年度统计)18.91%2019资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)-2.46%-5%图表:2019-24H1计算机(申万)成份股毛利增速中位数变化趋势11.22%20217.02%202020%15%10%5%0%2.23%21H22.95%2023一毛利增速中位数0.08%2024H10.08%24H13.19%3.18%2022-10%2.22.2单季毛利增速整体呈下行趋势,单季毛利增速整体呈下行趋势21、,2424Q2毛利增速中位数转负毛利增速中位数转负对毛利进行单季度分析,可以看到24Q2 计算机行业毛利增速中位数再次转负,在营收微增的基础上毛利增速转负,反 映了当前计算机公司整体毛利增长承压的现状。图表:22Q1-24Q2 计算机(申万)成份股毛利增速中位数变化趋势(单季度统计)0.70%22Q3 22Q4-6.39%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)168%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%7.31%22Q16.30%23Q25.07%23Q1中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.53%23Q4一 单季度毛利增速中位数2.22、17%24Q11.90%23Q322Q22.89%1%222.2毛利率:毛利率中枢有所毛利率:毛利率中枢有所下滑下滑从毛利率角度来看,沿用之前的样本选取与分析方法,无论是24H1还是24Q2 单季度,计算机行业毛利率中位数均较 去年同期有一定程度下滑。24H1 计算机行业毛利率中位数36.63%,23H1 为38.64%,同比下降2.01pcts。24Q2 计算机行业毛利率中位数36.80%,23Q2 为38.48%,同比下降1.68pcts。毛利率变动方面:24H1在330家标的中,164家公司毛利率同比提升,166家毛利率同比下降,数量基本持平。分季度来看,330家标的公司中,24Q1毛利23、率同比提升的有165家,同比下降的也是165家;24Q2 这一情况发生了变 化,毛利率同比提升的为160家,而毛利率下降的则增至170家,毛利率同比下降的公司数量开始增多。图表:2018-2024H1计算机(申万)成份股毛利率中位数变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2计算机(申万)成份股毛利率中位数变化趋势(季度统计)一半年度毛利率中位数45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%18H118H2 19H1 19H220H120H221H121H222H122H2 23H123H2 24H1一 单季度毛利率中位数45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21Q121Q224、21Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES172.32.3归母净利润:归母净利润:2424H1H1 延延续负增长趋势续负增长趋势沿用之前的样本选取与分析方法,对计算机沿用之前的样本选取与分析方法,对计算机(申万申万)成份股进行归母净利润分析,结果显示成份股进行归母净利润分析,结果显示2424H1计算机行业整体利润计算机行业整体利润 增速仍为负25、值。24 H1计算机计算机行业归母净利润增速为行业归母净利润增速为-15.58%,-15.58%,不仅低于不仅低于2323H1的的-8.39%,-8.39%,也低于也低于2222H1的的-11.14%-11.14%。整体。整体 而言,计算机行业近来年盈利能力持续承压,利润增速中位数持续为负值。图表:2019-24H1计算机(申万)成份股归母净利润增速中位数变化趋势 图表:19H1-24H1计算机(申万)成份股归母净利润增速中位数变化趋势(半年度统计)一 归母净利润增速中位数 一 半年度归母净利润增速中位数25%15%20%10%15%10%0%5%19H 19H2 20H1 20H2 21H 26、21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-5%0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024H1 -10%-5%-15%-10%-20%-15%-25%-25%-30%-30%-35%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)18中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES-20%5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)192.32.3单季度归母净利润单季度归母净利润增27、速同样持续负增长增速同样持续负增长对归母净利润进行单季度分析,我们同样发现计算机行业整体利润表现承压明显。24Q224Q2 计算机行业归母净利润增速中位数为计算机行业归母净利润增速中位数为-20.82%,-20.82%,不仅较不仅较2323Q2Q2 的的-7.30%-7.30%明显下滑,甚至低于明显下滑,甚至低于2222Q2Q2 的的-19.41%19.41%。图表:22Q1-24Q2 计算机(申万)成份股归母净利润增速中位数变化趋势(单季度统计)0%22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2-5%中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES一单28、季度毛利增速中位数2.32.3归母净利率:较之前同期比较均有明归母净利率:较之前同期比较均有明显下滑显下滑考虑到计算机行业整体季节性较强,主要确认收入的节点一般在下半年甚至第四季度,故一般情况下计算机行业上半 年的净利率表现没有下半年亮眼。24H1 计算机行业归母净利率中位数为0.27%,接近盈亏平衡状态,较前几年的上半年表现有明显下滑;24Q2 计算机行业归母净利率中位数为0.83%,同样也不及前几年的Q2 表现。图表:2018-2024H1计算机(申万)成份股归母净利率中位数变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 计算机(申万)成份股归母净利率中位数变化趋势(季度统计)一 半年度归母净利率中位29、数14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%18H1 18H219H1 19H220H120H221H1 21H222H1 22H223H1 23H224H1-单季度归母净利率中位数 10%8%6%4%2%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q4-2%-4%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST标的)资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所(注:样本中剔除了北交所、*ST 标的)20中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES2 4Q1 24Q2计算机不同赛道业绩总计算机不同赛道业绩总结结3.1.13.1.30、1金融金融ITIT:经营持续承压,营收增速经营持续承压,营收增速边际下探边际下探 2024年以来,证券、基金行业收入整体承压,监管和合规要求不断增加,金融机构项目管理更趋严格,采购立项、采 购决策及验收流程拉长,因此信息技术预算的增长大幅下降,甚至负增长,预算执行率继续放缓。受下游需求景气度下行影响,24H1 金融IT行业整体营收增速下行,24H1 金融IT板块24家代表性公司的总营收为296.38 亿元,同比下降3.95%,营收增速中位数也为-5.09%,呈现同比下降趋势。分季度来看,金融IT板块24家代表性公司24Q1总营收136.40亿元,增速-4.86%,营收增速中位数-0.81%;231、4Q2总营 收159.98亿元,同比增速-3.17%,营收增速中位数-6.36%,亦呈明显下探趋势。一金 融IT公司季度收入增速中位数 一 金融IT公司季度总收入增速50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q235%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%一 金融IT公司半年度收入增速中位数21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2一金融IT公司半年度总收入增速23H1 2 3H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 22图表:21H1-24H1金融IT公司半年度营收增32、速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 金融IT公司单季度度营收增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21012101 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21042104 22Q122Q1 22022202 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23012301 23022302 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24022402 21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 2H2H 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1同花顺同花顺恒生电33、子恒生电子财富趋势财富趋势指南针指南针中科软中科软新大陆新大陆大智慧大智慧金证股份金证股份新国都新国都宇信科技宇信科技京北方京北方长亮科技长亮科技银之杰银之杰顶点软件顶点软件科蓝软件科蓝软件博彦科技博彦科技四方精创四方精创赢时胜赢时胜天阳科技天阳科技先进数通先进数通中科金财中科金财高伟达高伟达新致软件新致软件安硕信息安硕信息37.95%46.27%83.73%15.26%39.05%31.38%54.75%56.26%42.17%64.65%69.52%28.43%20.39%57.97%35.68%26.05%48.18%63.75%84.70%9.54%69.07%277.57%24.5434、%38.95%31.28%17.64%15.88%10.70%-8.15%2.17%10.37%8.58%28,96%13.34%33.21%35.39%-6.79%36.65%10.87%21.07%1.86%-2.10%18.93%457.97%9.41%-2.51%11.40%13.08%27.49%48.72%23.91%17.41%6.27%2.02%8.26%4.83%51.58%28.93%27.42%2.66%25.62%33.67%4.90%23.62%4.46%2.39%25.35%45.79%-0.50%24.59%20.17%7.64%12.33%29.50%3.23%35、45.10%8.47%7.18%8.42%19.84%29.92%23.05%17.34%12.00%31.98%51.04%38.76%41.28%5.94%51.81%30.93%54.49%29.46%32.06%22.07%23.11%-2.90%29.59%20.16%89.51%-2.15%5.29%-4.82%8.50%44.06%-2.50%20.12%62.61%19.80%38.21%15.81%29.65%3.84%13.94%13.52%13.64%42.86%73.19%0.48%-4.24%9.73%8.56%3.15%33.98%-1.72%0.63%0.73%236、.31%22.24%27.96%20.57%25.58%18.97%5.02%0.27%22.01%10.44%11.87%16.69%67.96%20.94%11.78%0.94%37.40%3.32%26.45%27.94%-3.26%-0.56%0.54%5.14%2.41%21.12%47.75%24.35%31.04%-1.71%30.68%-7.76%20.49%7.54%59.78%-3.96%12.58%-36.93%34.06%3.51%10.42%3.12%16.40%-8.93%19.56%20.64%19.28%-7.77%13.75%-1.06%-1.65%16.2537、%4.73%18.53%27.45%22.55%1.95%-5.59%40.95%19.20%0.27%-27.11%-7.69%4.29%12.04%18.42%16.05%34.60%45.78%2.39%6.08%9.07%2.84%-0.27%95.00%20.05%7.09%9.90%32.15%1.63%6.95%5.02%21.08%8.08%24.47%73.49%18.19%24.75%21.49%-1.58%20.17%19.35%39.11%2.93%4.03%8.94%2.03%-14.50%4.27%14.26%11.82%0.61%14.40%4.47%2.27%838、.93%46.77%1.14%40.78%46.17%10.17%24.84%6.12%1.78%14.02%26.71%10.78%-2.97%9.17%4.14%19.65%19.94%7.70%12.37%14.37%15.14%11.56%3.26%-1.99%5.87%4.33%8.22%-27.85%-9.17%1.55%48.98%1.15%7.14%5.36%49.73%178.55%-8.21%28.44%-9.74%2.91%11.62%30.61%15.83%10.91%25.08%21.31%-6.08%0.97%18.93%5.24%-18.97%1.67%-32.039、5%-7.36%19.26%24.78%1.47%5.13%9.16%-13.17%0.91%-8.34%-5.07%13.84%-22.74%24.25%11.55%-2.49%23.06%5.34%0.71%3.38%4.62%-10.86%1.36%2.28%53.40%23.22%36.76%10.03%10.46%2.88%6.98%45.09%13.05%-2.24%9.82%14.02%16.07%22.28%10.279 8.27%14.57%-13.88%2.79%6.10%-6.56%5.66%3.77%-10.36%6.17%11.03%27.00%1.10%33.87%40、26.72%40.54%38.57%10.06%14.34%27.89%25.28%34.43%25.40%48.57%32.91%5.04%43.71%21.29%23.34%20.06%19.04%44.85%138.79%31.61%88.69%16.94%23.25%17.84%34.91%8.93%29.52%7.66%4.80%8.35%13.41%39.53%24.73%22.03%-8.54%28.94%43.66%27.06%32.65%5.28%26.07%28.21%51.92%21.49%16.55%21.36%10.45%4.69%16.25%-7.93%67.72%41、-1.93%2.86%1.92%5.02%31.79%18.56%20.35%38.36%19.38%17.11%7.57%25.58%7.24%12.78%5.09%53.91%-9.56%51.79%0.73%18.95%0.59%19.52%2.64%11.25%12.91%10.37%-6.65%-7.35%9.63%12.96%20.19%11.70%8.43%28.72%18.33%10.39%0.20%48.92%8.19%4.38%30.53%18.47%4.00%4.30%5.83%18.49%25.64%43.69%2.67%5.03%9.00%0.17%-7.69%20.42、94%17.05%9.91%5.22%22.03%3.03%4.53%7.09%35.31%4.58%9.16%10.03%011024.80%11.60%3.50%8.21%40.72%73.34%6.53%18.73%-7.32%6.96%16.05%421.75%14.09%-3.06%20.58%17.40%-3.07%-0.50%2.75%4.83%7.50%8.95%24.81%4.42%30.28%15.40%5.51%0.32%0.14%6.58%7.17%5.25%-7.62%13.94%19.52%+23.09%10.90%-5.99%18.97%4.93%1.75%4.743、6%1.41%-7.74%-1.14%-6.12%33.68%16.25%31.37%3.22%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数 总收入增速总收入增速47.22%12.24%12.83%18.59%4.56%6.60%9.14%1.83%5.52%9.79%-1.35%0.41%9.48%8.40%4.25%3.47%2.52%-0.10%2.29%4.59%0.81%4.86%6.36%3.17%27.30%15.62%7.41%3.94%4.19%4.09%6.46%5.70%-1.78%2.65%-5.09%-3.95%46.10%21.00%10.49%5.18%30.94%7.20%3.44、1.13.1.1金融金融IT:IT:经营持续承压,营收增速边际下探经营持续承压,营收增速边际下探图表:2021年以来金融IT公司营收增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所2330%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%一金 融IT公司半年度毛利增速中位数 一金融IT公司半年度毛利增速21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H160%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%一金融IT公司季度毛利增速中位数 一金融IT公司季度总毛利增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q445、/23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q23.1.23.1.2金融金融IT:IT:毛利增速边际转负毛利增速边际转负下游需求不景气,供给端竞争加剧的背景下,金融IT公司在营收承压的同时,毛利端同样承受下行压力。24H1金融IT公司总毛利增速为-3.50%,毛利增速中位数为-5.62%,均全面转负;24Q1金融IT公司总毛利增速为-0.13%,毛利增速中位数为-0.84%;24Q2 总毛利增速为-6.03%,毛利增速中位数为-4.30%,降幅环比24Q1有所扩大。图表:21H1-24H1 金 融IT公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 金融IT 公司单季度度归母净利润增速变化46、趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所24季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22042204 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1同花顺同花顺恒生电子恒生电子财富趋势财富趋势47、指南针指南针中科软中科软新大陆新大陆大智慧大智慧金证股份金证股份新国都新国都宇信科技宇信科技京北方京北方长亮科技长亮科技银之杰银之杰顶点软件顶点软件科蓝软件科蓝软件博彦科技博彦科技四方精创四方精创赢时胜赢时胜天阳科技天阳科技先进数通先进数通中科金财中科金财高伟达高伟达新致软件新致软件安硕信息安硕信息37.25%58.65%108.79%126.12%42.95%18.90%126.81%112.08%30.79%27.70%98.97%39.19%-9.91%56.92%39.76%91.26%39.08%72.23%226.23%17.84%72.21%18.64%38.30%25.86%348、3.32%9.93%16.61%10.97%6.96%12.88%14.71%-3.19%0.01%22.27%8.20%12.18%-27.98%31.80%12.73%25.28%6.04%-1.96%-14.03%93.89%15.84%2.47%0.01%12.19%31.59%57.70%23.64%22.62%-2.00%-4.77%8.46%-1.26%24.03%21.17%1.06%-7.95%13.51%27.62%12.72%29.62%-3.74%16.75%8.20%0.42%|13.79%10.19%17.74%12.87%9.77%15.99%1.21%60.4749、%17.90%15.88%1.33%33.00%2.40%19.55%10.08%25.94%76.94%39.43%15.71%32.43%17.52%38.88%11.96%1.91%6.36%3.68%15.43%-5.91%2.61%26.14%23.87%97.48%10.31%24.12%16.84%-30.61%56.33%16.07%-1.43%28.99%-10.16%34.57%20.51%23.25%2.18%-3.65%18.53%33.29%-15.87%-21.54%-6.28%13.26%7.66%6.28%-1.78%32.49%1.37%3.60%-7.01%50、3.80%45.46%0.07%22.03%31.29%-10.58%-1.03%22.38%19.78%-7.21%23.37%27.29%-2.39%11.02%33.96%10.32%64.09%1.73%32.57%31.61%11.97%8.48%2.00%F17.70%-8.51%31.78%1.34%17.75%23.97%527.64%18.38%-31.41%30.11%-14.65%39.61%0.91%20.31%6.40%28.76%530.43%27.43%6.12%18.91%13.51%34.46%4.79%37.71%13.74%71.78%25.81%25.551、0%19.47%18.52%248.09%31.72%2.1349.23%54.96%9.61%40.59%1.01%26.53%30.62%73.57%101.22%16.19%12.73%35.41%50.94%0.10%33.70%14.95%4.91%29.57%14.06%31.39%3.87%28.71%37.70%-17.21%14.97%13.64%37.47%0.95%17.10%10.34%20.45%2.46%-9.15%-2.77%20.98%19.51%54.09%14.96%60.95%15.97%10.64%29.24%8.14%12.55%4.54%3.93%152、3.10%30.13%4.06%-8.41%50.50%19.35%56.04%22.74%11.57%51.74%34.46%3.61%16.61%24.28%33.56%9.93%36.57%-7.38%21.76%31.74%18.37%21.19%27.81%-5.68%32.70%14.64%10.43%10.43%2.32%6.21%3.37%21.75%27.31%36.24%14.05%7.75%9.61%57.50%222.75%-2.11%103.39%F15.37%12.36%50.16%23.93%16.43%4.81%58.85%14.15%51.14%3.72%2653、.77%10.51%26.47%6.89%23.97%14.19%316.31%扭亏1.65%5.83%11.21%26.26%1.99%7.47%-4.94%6.32%-0.11%9.08%7.11%2.20%41.46%1.56%11.48%2.50%2.11%38.19%11.23%18.45%25.47%16.38%50.57%26.64%12.33%4.57%-4.03%33.91%10.16%-2.88%11.79%29.89%2.92%10.14%0.18%1.03%-6.41%8.10%-1.38%16.32%4.70%2.50%26.46%37.38%18.79%18.26%54、15.5699.74%34.78%23.42%47.03%41.50%21.50%15.50%48.88%30.51%12.79%23.69%38.57%3.74%Lh9.84%40.18%24.65%4663%18.85%20.44%34.05%5763%S6.45%18.29%15.07%4.02%17.24%25.53%6.87%38.27%9.87%6.06%4.19%20.60%9.14%20.04%4.67%21.44%40.70%34.57%-7.81%31.14%h1.48%7.91%410.22%1.14%0.47%6.29%-16.45%8.87%3.77%13.35%h255、.13%2.24%5.62%12.79%h1.58%h2.55%50.70%4.31%10.76%80.34%h0.37%12.27%1.18%1.24%-2.95%4.86%23.02%10.33%1.38%29.06%-8.41%24.22%h-3.10%22.84%0.33%2.76%6.12%20.77%h5.39%32.78%28.77%7.29%18.59%20.12%36.59%26.51%9.27%8.57%35.76%2.49%21.75%5.94%8.26%29.84%54.46%71.24%3.97%17.71%25.96%.88%7.58%4751%15.53%4.7856、%29.41%9.92%20.61%1.08%16.51%24.11%1.59%4.11%h0.91%7.53%-9.83%4.54%h7.86%15.44%27.90%25.35%3.17%1.78%44.69%0.82%2.32%6.69%2.11%0.94%40.81%21 85%18.86%4.29%37.24%20.92%34.24%3.95%6.43%4.23%14.61%5.59%L23.24%L19.74%L26.82%11.77%6.780.622.629.116.381.758.8121.831.519.81%3.41 1.4926.07%4.85%4.94%7.40%3.57、50%9.06%6.66%21.38%21.66%7.41%29.12%17.14%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数 总毛利增速总毛利增速41.36%55.56%7.58%10.27%9.32%14.26%5.02%6.42%6.24%6.00%2.49%7.08%1.53%7.20%11.37%-2.35%7.59%3.78%12.06%12.33%8.07%8.87%8.25%13.79%-0.84%-0.13%4.30%6.03%24.17%25.99%6.58%9.30%4.96%10.90%-6.19%1.32%8.75%8.50%8.68%1.79%-5.62%-3.50%3.1.2358、.1.2金融金融IT:IT:毛利增速边际转负毛利增速边际转负图表:2021年以来金融IT 公司毛利增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所%253.1.23.1.2金融金融IT:24H 1金融金融IT 毛利率分化明显毛利率分化明显总体来看,24H1 金融IT公司毛利率总体同比略有上升,从23H1的37.00%上升至24H1的37.17%。分季度来看,24Q1金融IT公司毛利率总体同比有明显上升,从23Q1的34.14%升至24Q1 的35.84%;24Q2 总体毛利率 则略有下降,从23Q2 的39.47%降至24Q2 的38.31%。259、4H124H1 金融IT 公司毛利率大部分保持平稳,小部分标的毛利率波动较大,如指南针24H1 毛利率下降11.58pcts、新国都 增长7.89pcts、宇信科技提升4.97pcts。图表:20H1-24H1金融IT 公司半年度毛利率变化趋势一 金融IT公司半年度总毛利率45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%20H1 20H2 21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一 一金融IT公司季度总毛利率45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 26图表:20Q1-24Q60、2 金融IT公司单季度度归母净利润增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES%季度同比变动季度同比变动21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21032103 21042104 22012201 0202 203203 2222 0 04 4 23012301 23022302 230230 23042304 24012401 24240202半年度同比变动半年度同比变动21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 2222 2 2 3H13H1 23H223H2 2424H H1 1同花顺同花顺恒生电子恒生电子043%584%1.40%529%2.84%3.81%61、221%-8.69%0.24%720192%58%4103.24%58%61%01%08%0.50%.61.59%061%3.07%014%046%85%30%60%.98%0.48%5 39%0.77%1.86%36%00%54%d.47%0.31%245%Q.15%68%财富趋势财富趋势997%0.54%-018%-181%386%-408%2.36%57%048%011%62%448%150%58%3.72%1.70%B.85%2.55%0.21%241%99%指南针指南针中科软中科软新大陆新大陆大智慧大智慧金证股份金证股份新国都新国都433%0.79%-216%18.94%7.09%-62、211%-027%429%221%2.38%281%.587%3.73%245%171%013%124%-494%8.07%237%197%490%1099%595%3.80%358%3.68%753%971%2.06%-0|98%096%0.69%-4.83%033%3.86%790%2.64%0.35%9l01%214%96%1560%389%6.01%453%13.82%70%8|94%-073%6.32%281%130%86%58%66%13.11%3.75%3.03%12.36%0.39%4.2%610%199%047%15.62%10.89%171%1184%-408%2.55%163、86612|83%0|92%527%0.07%139%10.00%5J09%-71890.24%135%4.88%5.72%13.39%1|53%9.75%331%d95%1011%.58%23%50%.76%.98%89%宇信科技宇信科技京北方京北方长亮科技长亮科技银之杰银之杰顶点软件顶点软件科蓝软件科蓝软件博彦科技博彦科技四方精创四方精创1561%188%410%395%298%734%158%697%-d.50%.76%11.79%6.29%1.79%097%3.90%0.43%29%G40%6 94%05%62%12 85%-U32%L8.18%4.33%194%2.43%227%2.64、93%-8.94%d.85%4.05%-8.87%.30%12.03%31%17%377%d.45%49%2.88%0.68%8.17%242%116%0.47%-0.10%6.48%0.02%d94%2429%5.40%202%12.14%Q.94%090%420d97.56%74%.19%.06%03%.59 60%赢时胜赢时胜天阳科技天阳科技先进数通先进数通中科金财中科金财高伟达高伟达3.86%1301%225%034%t17|27%011%224%146%h%10%1473%-4.86%6.39%203%-290%581%-567%8.03%708%741%1053%132%527%765、8%1524%2238%2.90%1249%-163%-571%8l09%1.56%0.96%9.05%1.78%3|88%679%019%017%p34%27|89%207%146%322%044%1.24%Z05%2.01%794%4.12%1|08%-0|60%6.49%3lo8%681%Z27%9.36%0,74%252%1(19%9/13%2.85%2.59%8.48%210%4.32%654%621%352%172%10 62%25%753%4.00%4.68%.60%59%12%,47%.31%新致软件新致软件安硕信息安硕信息320%4.43%333%9/17%079%231%166、66%9l09%216%401%326%619%1264%51%13|17%2989%535%9.73%5日0%1455%222%379%1819%16.49%248%4.85%2|84%2.58%d.50%l6.77%1.37%ld.90%2.77%24%162%22.77%0.69%10.53%012.66%8.17%.49%345毛利率变动中位数毛利率变动中位数 总毛利率变动总毛利率变动1.68%1.99%0.08%336%t1.87%529%1.17%0.43%o20%2.89%h28%1.78%1.77%421%-Q84%101%144%152%0.98%3.12%1.59%3.1267、%1.49%3.14%0.92%1.70%1.32%h17%-0.46%3.41%-1.33%070%1.35%2.26%.46%0.96%0.06%0.95%1.47%3.14%0.40%0.17%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所3.1.23.1.2金融金融IT:24H 1毛毛利率分化明显利率分化明显2.83%1.80%3.19%2.58%11.58%3.32%254%.59%277%566%20127%587%257057%0.89%1.78%1|26%oh11%216%1259%420%1986%0.67%127%220%631%540%10.83%320%2.81%1.26%3l9768、%图表:2021年以来金融IT公司毛利率变动对比41%-087%010%646%-483%3.45%1|29%077%914%359%390%592%-0|49%1h1%756%261%0.76%28%19.64%829%635%1037%218%962%中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.84%037%2|55%0.72%0,75%6.56%162%-604%831%o30%170%206%402%-779%-0|49%5.23%24%2.88%217%4.37%35%2.36%385%186%279%0.22%8.64%d99%4.22%5.44%0.59%d30%269、.76%01%6 01%1.09%262%9.02%8.24%199%1718%1.16%1 77%93%6 48%7.09%3.77%081%2.49%-3.62%.68%-9.71%1d.82%4.55%2.37%83%295%2.47%192%54%1|09%064%242%228%212%6.04%4.14%316%-0|95%-658%765%1855%-4.49%5.56%233%045%-8.00%918423110 00%03%14%1 20%8 90%0.21%323%3 04%7.11%213%9.80%174%6.16%573%2028%184%150%6.02%435%70、1045%791%0.60%14.2-8.3722%012707d-3.1.33.1.3金融金融IT:经营持续承压,经营持续承压,利润增速转负利润增速转负 20232023年来计算机公司普遍进行了降本控费和人员优化,但由于下游需求景气度较差带动营收端持续承压,年来计算机公司普遍进行了降本控费和人员优化,但由于下游需求景气度较差带动营收端持续承压,2424H1H1金融金融ITIT 板块整体利润表现也承压明显。以总量和中位数来分板块整体利润表现也承压明显。以总量和中位数来分析,析,2424家金融家金融IT代表性公司的利润增速分析指标均于代表性公司的利润增速分析指标均于2424H1转负。转负。图表:71、21H1-24H1 金融IT 公司半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 金融IT 公司单季度度归母净利润增速变化趋势200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%一金融IT公司季度归母净利润增速中位数 一金融IT公司季度总归母净利润增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322QA 23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%一 金融IT公司半年度归母净利润增速中位数一金融IT公司半年度归母净利润增速21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1中泰证券中泰证券ZHO72、NGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所28季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21042104 220220 22022202 22032203 22042204 230230 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 2A012A01 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1同花顺同花顺恒生电子恒生电子财富趋势财富趋势指南针指南针中科软中科软新大陆新大73、陆大智慧大智慧金证股份金证股份新国都新国都宇信科技宇信科技京北方京北方长亮科技长亮科技银之杰银之杰顶点软件顶点软件科蓝软件科蓝软件博彦科技博彦科技四方精创四方精创赢时胜赢时胜天阳科技天阳科技先进数通先进数通中科金财中科金财高伟达高伟达新致软件新致软件安硕信息安硕信息33.7%475.4%151.5%242.6%-129.9%5.3%92.5%-142.3%20.7%-600.9%116.6%-148.3%35.9%32.4%-155.0%772.4%20.7%-778.7%154.1%167.1%16.7%-602.0%-699.8%22.1%30.5%40.6%38.5%34.9%6.6%574、6.2%112.3%-93.0%-50.7%28.8%2.5%112.5%1282.6%24.8%161.1%10.0%12.9%-87.3%-10.9%50.7%67.5%-12.8%2.7%-307.8%24.2%-138.3%27.5%1948.1%54.3%15.5%69.7%256.1%47.9%207.1%30.0%-67.1%23.7%20.4%93.0%9.3%-4.9%82.2%16.6%206.9%151.7%179.3%7.7%-83.7%3.3%13.0%-18.7%99.7%7.9%3254.5%83.4%-75.5%155.4%-24.0%-52.0%-47.1%575、75.9%31.3%-31.6%2.0%-44.0%148.1%146.7%35.9%225.7%-106.8%96.5%55.9%34.0%124.5%13.7%176.5%7.8%19.2%1512.1%-206.7%72.1%106.1%53.7%182.6%61.1%13.5%4.7%-7.1%5.7%120.0%43.3%142.2%13.0%88.1%-67.1%803.4%8.5%110.0%-22.6%66.7%-5.3%-27.3%1084.8%498.9%157.5%25.1%15.5%585.5%-17.7%-20.6%17.6%15.9%16.8%423.7%68.3%76、55.2%179.9%-138.3%71.4%196.6%3.9%443.3%-142.2%132.0%24.9%-25.4%244.1%-63.76 78.3%-140.3%29.9%-107.3%65.7%18.6%69.3%5.4%6.0%441.4%77.7%161.7%127.1%89.6%51.0%48.5%12.1%38.50-8.4%94.3%14.0%461.3%110.4%357.1%681.1%41.6%100.7%-84.7%-76.2%50.4%30.3%71.7%211.7%0.2%212.0%6.7%199.6%-243.2%-173.9%530.3%9.3%6377、7.7%25.3%78.5%219.4%257.2%749.4%52.0%45.5%2520.7%152.7%41.8%-103.7%948.6%242.1%25.4%59.7%145.6%316.7%168.4%27.1%434.7%101.4%70.7%9.6%511.6%22.3%167.6%19.9%74.2%7.9%6.7%93.6%2.6%10.1%125.2%100.2%19.3%-120.5%28.1%13.7%208.8%126.3%85.4%56.7%139.0%259.8%234.5%21.7%49.5%-372.7%464.8%12.9%86.4%211.7%-140.78、9%96.8%-40.9%18.3%1623.5%47.0%52.6%45.9%-31.4%19.2%14.3%299.2%94.9%542.9%103.3%96.1%-718.8%-21.9%-24.3%29.7%363.6%14.7%124.6%13066.4%13066.4%149.8%-177.6%18.4%11.4%85.9%13.7%22.4%398.1%122.0%2.4%6.5%132.1%17.6%55.9%110.8%-136.2%84.0%15.0%116.3%10.6%-70.7%12.4%16.9%122.5%36.0%66.4%-23.3%-20.8%34.0%2679、69.5%-26.8%-34.4%70.7%12.3%1.9%225.8%139.7%96.2%80.7%107.8%119.3%-23.2%-70.6%-19.8%68.6%12.5%6.0%215.7%-101.0%13.9%6.6%-19.7%234.1%-34.7%-17.9%-33.4%-23.2%-2.1%-0.8%102.5%83.6%3519.1%56.4%-69.2%113.2%31.4%108.1%72.6%61.2%29.9%34.7%7B.1%3.8%15.0%23.5%113.4%4.0%18.7%4726%147.5%17.8%4.7%76.2%24.6%7.9%180、337.9%9.6%58.6%64.8%69.0%17.0%-253.0%-183.9%5.3%66 0%23%94.3%28.7%139.1%500.3%2h.8%17.6%233.3%288.2%64%-171.1%925.79658.7%-381.9%22.3%14.7%168.9%2h.9%302%-473.2%4.3%21.0%93 3%15.4%355.5%9.8%5.2%4B.79%-2232%34 8%-1 0%202%-1135%83 0%20.1%35 0%45 8%-7.1%-25.7%3.2%32.3%219.1%175.9%25.1%23.4%53.0%15.1%2881、Q.1%5D.6%69.027.9%53.8%18.5%-3Z6.7%-18.9%4h.0%49.8%40.3%108.9%-9.2%-14.1%-20.4%-1.3%-239.3%49.8%58.8%86.7%69.8%39.5%33.1%3h.4%73.8%8B.7%49.5%66.9%104.3%183.5%15.7%71.0%35.8%43.1%-245.6%.42.7974.8%47.5%-9.7%6.5%19.3%-17.0%190.8%24.7%265.4%805.5%27.4%34.9%23.7%-286.4%-72.9%34.6%-323.3%-111.3%25.3%-19.82、1%-26.9%-13.1%13.5%-135.5%-64.5%-76.8%6.0%119.8%50.6%8%5 5%2.5%18D.7%304.1%2.2%89.4%37.1%270.8%121.2%4h.4%67.8%2h 8%72.4%115.4%6B.1%74.5%69.9%155.1%97.2%-253.0%63.9%116.2%467.4%1985.9%归母净利润增速中位数归母净利润增速中位数 总归母净利润增速总归母净利润增速-5.7%0.0%-0.1%-2.2%12.9%0.5%-37.8%12.8%-26.6%-53.5%-21.6%-36.3%-49.7%-6.5%-36.083、%-48.0%48.7%174.9%-8.8%35.0%18.8%13.1%-6.1%-22.1%-21.5%-29.1%33.5%29.2%17.3%43.9%-12.7%-1.7%-21.0%84.4%-56.1%42.0%8.7%41.9%35.2%71.9%52.7%40.5%3.1.33.1.3金融金融IT:经营持续承压,经营持续承压,利润增速转负利润增速转负图表:2021年以来金融IT 公司归母净利润增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所293.2.13.2.1 医疗医疗IT:IT:营收增速持续下滑营收增速持续下滑24H1 84、医疗IT典型代表公司总营收44.71亿元,同比增速为-13.32%,增速较23H2进一步下探。以中位数法,24H1医疗 IT公司营收增速中位数为2.68%,环比23H2转正。24Q1医疗IT典型代表公司总营收19.86亿元,同比增速为-11.69%;24Q2医疗IT典型代表公司总营收24.86亿元,同比 增速为-14.58%,增速持续下探。以中位数法分析,24Q1医 疗IT 典型代表公司营收增速中位数为4.18%;24Q2这一数 值变为-3.54%,Q2 边际承压明显。图表:21H1-24H1医疗IT公司半年度营收增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 医 疗IT公司单季度度营收增速变化趋势485、0%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%一 医疗IT公司季度收入增速中位数 医疗IT公司季度总收入增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q 4/23Q123Q2 23Q323Q424Q12 4Q225%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%一 一医 疗IT公司半年度收入增速中位数21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 医疗IT公司半年度总收入增速23H1 23HZ 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 30中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所季度同比增速 半年度同半年度同比增速86、比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 2424Q2Q2 21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1卫宁健康卫宁健康万达信息万达信息国新健康国新健康创业慧康创业慧康久远银海久远银海山大地纬山大地纬和仁科技和仁科技思创医惠思创医惠嘉和美康嘉和美康24.01%183.60%59.58%22.75%28.96%13.65%43.92%31.89%83.58%11.14%1.51%29.71%30.20%2.487、1%27.77%7.90%70.35%5.60%21.42%20.56%8.70%10.28%28.19%8.71%33.87%3.16%37.08%3.95%00.41%14.73%29.25%1.89%38.43%5.11%7.13%4.43%21.65%7.29%33.94%4.31%65.70%30%15.54%4.01%39.59%0.68%-1.31%12.45%4.94%41.3845.07%16.99%4.21%32.18%17.00%2.63%16.77%23.77%0.97%17.12%43.64%-7.90%47.07%63.73%转正-2.27%0.82%18.77%488、6.94%24.74%25.97%17.09%3.24%39.09%9.67%14.19%35.88%0.21%12.14%20.92%56.91%29.18%3.66%19.86%-8.51%54.70%16.58%26.34%19.95%36.09%9.49%22.33%20.82%3.32%44.30%4.15%18.11%12.70%17.19%73.14%91.46%39.81%10.09%47.28%4.08%7.76%4.18%7.95%8.50%15.42%14.00%1.81%23.01%.7291.32%39.84%1.76%12.37%39.669 3.54%29.13%89、120.52%32.01%9.70%29.45%15.95%16.28%-9.55%17.14%20.47%19.33%21.36%7.22%.74%6.00%52.27%6.98%35.39%56.57%0.31%5.09%31.08%8.56%8.11%19.94%15.71%18.78%14.40%33.38%4.85%28.1644.15%3194%5.23%8.75%24.34%21.50%9.74%2.70%10.69%14.16%19.83%15.89%1.27%49.76%0.58%22.06%-3.68%6.20%24%7.10%13.29%2.68%34.44%37.22%90、3.17%23.91%3.15%10.21%29.540 2.92%-1.25%6.724 1.67%185.18%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数 总收入增速总收入增速96%0.42%08%71%7.29%6.63%11.661.31%23.54%.94%43%7.90%6.10%3.24%-10.94%24.19%9.48%9.49%7.96%3.32%7.15%4.18%11.69%3.54%14.58%22.70%8%6.98%8.24%.23%1.04%15.89%8.10%1.27%12.00%2.680 13.32%3.2.13.2.1医疗医疗IT:营收增速营收增速持续下滑持续下滑图91、表:2021年以来医疗IT公司营收增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所313.2.23.2.2医疗医疗IT:IT:毛利持续负增长毛利持续负增长 24H1,24H1,医疗IT行业9家典型公司总毛利为15.77亿元,同比增速为-20.11%;以中位数法分析,2424 H1H1 医疗IT行业毛利增 速中位数为-12.92%。分季度来看,24Q1,医 疗IT行业9家典型公司总毛利为6.55亿元,同比增速为-19.60%,24Q2 总毛利为9.22亿元,同 比增速-20.46%。以中位数法分析,24Q1 医 疗IT行业9家典型公司的毛利增速中位92、数为-2.55%,24Q2 这一数值则进一 步降至-19.33%。图表:21H1-24H1医疗IT 公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2医疗IT 公司单季度度归母净利润增速变化趋势一医 疗IT公司季度毛利增速中位数 一 医疗IT 公司季度总毛利增速30%20%10%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q1 22Q2 22Q32 2Q423Q1 23Q223Q323Q4 244Q1 24Q2-10%-20%-30%-40%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一医 疗IT公司半年度毛利增速中位数 一 医疗IT 公司半年度毛利增速21H1 21H2 224 22H2 23H 1 293、3H2 24H130%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所32季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q24Q1 1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 2323H2H2 24H124H1卫卫94、 宁宁 健健 康康万 达 信 息万 达 信 息国国 新新 健健 康康创业慧康创业慧康久久 远远 银银 海海山大地纬山大地纬和和 仁仁 科科 技技思思 创创 医医 惠惠嘉嘉 和和 美美 康康8.93%293.68%39.68%21.18%34.3409.35%31.11%1.43%340.46%39.10%10.93%5.73%11.62%42.17%51.04%1.57%4.07%10.71%34.55%55.05%12.18%28.2103.40%4.7%5.79%20.61%593.33%24.21%11.78%5.22%6.25%9.86%15.34%36.68%6.48%30.94%695、.2206.48%4.34%8.06%13.82%16.79%17.42%7 42%4.21%24.31%2.89%34.23%21.31%12.10%18.71%-7.19%20.02%30.62%5.30%1.22%45.52%-3.31%-7.63%35.63%30.16%0.51%37.30%66.79%7.80%31.98%79.2%4.46%8.96%20.49%21.96%81.44%31.64%0.22%46.37%4.93%64.36%14.60%11.21%3.39%31.79%25.53%6.64%37.30%40.50%7.70%3.82%-9.59%70.21%12.96、66%-3.33434.95%2.09%1.43%29.67%21.30%95.39%7.59%18.72%23.23%6.35%62.13%33.57%14.44%82.64%.85%71702.55%6.77%6.01%29.53%19.58%0.06%6.86%8.39%7%48.77.25%9.33%8.66%2.33%29.55%170.07 14.24%16.58%39.37%40%13.11%6.54%7.86%26.00%9.56%1.93%10.9145.51%3.413.02%3.95%5.43%2.44%0.34%2.54%5.31%1.57%8 05%.89%0.22%97、9.05%3.63%5.22%2.40%4.56%1.18%5.95%+0.69%19.62%4.35%1.21%4.28%31.83%3.90%34.89%7.50%8.77%84.22%4.07%4.89%7.15%10.98%6.50%4.38%5.24%.85%7.7950%0.50%2.92%$2.76%8.60%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数总毛利增速总毛利增速21 8%2536%05%22%48%.06%1.15%-277.42%.61%530%64%180%.26%8222.96%11.21%.43%22.18%33%56%2323%99%19.55%.60%19.33%20.498、6%23.06%17%2.44%1.37%5.22%.08%0.69%26%10.98%6.192.92%0.11%中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.2.23.2.2医疗医疗IT:IT:毛利持续负增长毛利持续负增长图表:2021年以来医疗IT公司毛利增速对比资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所33%200%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q1 22Q222Q322 Q4-23Q12 3Q223Q32 3Q4 24Q124Q2-200%-400%-600%-800%-1000%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 24H124H1 医疗IT行业9家典型上市公司归母净利99、润-6.14亿元,同比亏损扩大285.30%。分季度来看,分季度来看,2424Q1Q1 医疗医疗ITIT行业行业9 9家典型上市公司归母净利润家典型上市公司归母净利润-2.75-2.75亿元,同比亏损扩大亿元,同比亏损扩大32.57%,2432.57%,24Q2Q2 医疗医疗ITIT9 家公司归 母净利润-3.39亿元,盈利减少801.94%。一 一医 疗IT公司半年度归母净利润增速中位数医疗IT公司半年度归母净利润增速400%200%一 医 疗IT公司季度归母净利润增速中位数一 医疗IT公司季度总归母净利润增速600%400%医疗医疗ITIT公司亏损持续扩大公司亏损持续扩大-1000%资料来100、源:Wind,中泰证券研究所0%-200%-400%-600%-800%图表:21H1-24H1 医疗IT公司半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势图 表:2 1Q1-24Q2 医 疗IT 公司单季度度归母净利润增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.2.324H13.2.324H123t421H222H123H224H121H1H234季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 2 24Q14Q101、1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1卫卫 宁宁 健健 康康万万 达达 信信 息息国国 新新 健健 康康创业慧康创业慧康久久 远远 银银 海海山大地纬山大地纬和仁科技和仁科技思创医惠思创医惠嘉和美康嘉和美康21.9%-103.1%-21.0%55.9%46.5%49.4%765.8%42.2%54.7%-129.1%-18.9%50.5%47.8%-404.7%125.7%-116.7%15.0%-131.8%25.1%16.9%16.1%-29.6%-10.8102、4 -70458.8%-103.1%-39.8%11.0%-0.6%10.7%-102.5%1097.3%11.9%121.7%214.1%-12.2%2.1%5.0%18.9%4.0%-1.6%38.1%63.9%1142.7%42.6%-82.2%7.1%-128.7%-0.9%538.5%129.3%50.6%1088.8%40.3%-20.7%23.2%153.8%65.6%101.4%497.4%126.7%-6.2%166.1%170.1%-39.4%53.1%23800.5%19.1%-7.8%300.0%421.3%11.2%88.7%6.2%-269.3%-83.0%347.103、7%18.7%128.1%-760082.3%47.0%4.8%-234.5%-123.9%-18.1%124.5%85.6%141.2%-47.0%2.9%-34.0%-70.6%178.2%3399.7%50.9%-750.8%1943.1%10.3%57.4%-9.1%33.7%124.1%-13.6%-63.2%126.2%392.4%-7.9%19.0%-19.8%4.2%-153.9%-11.6%-47.7%83.1%185.4%-207010.2%103.2%1.0%324.3%631.9%3013.4%49.6%5%20.1%3.9%475%5.4%E5.1%0%236.0%9104、%12.9%3.4%3%.0%76.40.1%26.2%24%3%5.00%8.8%0.5%5%4.9%4%1%4%8%22.6%20.8%5.3%23 9%2022.2%75.2%6.%18.1%5.1%7.1%1.9%27.4%10.3%21.8%551.3%5%9.8%8.5%4%2.1%0.0%81%1%140%36.8%3.232%27.7%18.6%归母净利润增速中位数归母净利润增速中位数总归母净利润增速总归母净利润增速21|9%144%9%-10557%57%34.0%635%-139%-200%67%6 39 4%882%347 6%2997%183%1291%9%508577105、%04%0%326%6%18002%9%13 7%245%-28-119k8%-842%8614%750%1772%-19193%18 6%1%285中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.2.324H13.2.324H1 医疗医疗ITIT公司亏损持续扩大公司亏损持续扩大图表:2021年以来医疗IT公司归母净利润增速对比资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所353.3.1工业软件经营韧性凸显,收入保持良好增长态势 2024年以来,工业软件公司在当前经济形势整体承压的大背景下,加强产品与技术攻关,紧抓国产替代等关键需求,实现了较好的收入增长态势。24H1工业软件11家代表性公司实现106、营收117.03亿元,同比增长15.44%;若以中位数法 分析,24H1工业软件11家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为11.79%,环比23H2 实现增速转正。Q2整体营收增速有所滑落,经营压力持续显现。分季度来看,24Q1工业软件11家代表性公司实现营收56.70亿元,同 比增长28.82%,24Q2 实现营收60.33亿元,同比增长5.17%。以中位数法分析,24Q1工业软件11家代表性公司的营收 增速中位数为30.37%,24Q2 这一增速中位数回落至9.47%。图表:21H1-24H1工业软件公司半年度营收增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 工业软件公司单季度度营收增速变化趋势60%5107、0%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-工业软件公司季度收入增速中位数 工业软件公司季度总收入增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3 23Q424Q124Q245%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%工业软件公司半年度收入增速中位数 一工业软件公司半年度总收入增速21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1中 泰 证 券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 36季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速2108、1Q1 21Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2 21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 2323H1H1 23H223H2 24H124H1宝信软件宝信软件华大九天华大九天柏楚电子柏楚电子广立微广立微中望软件中望软件概伦电子概伦电子赛意信息赛意信息鼎捷软件鼎捷软件索辰科技索辰科技能科科技能科科技浩辰软件浩辰软件43.47%47.00%58.45%23.60%27.86%29.24109、%92.71%43.69%64.10%17.99%34.43%22.60%45.59%10.38%18.20%8.72%-2.85%14.19%11.67%45.93%36 53%33.40%28.03%25.87%34.14%51.86%1.40%88.98%1.24%44.02%28.93%13.88%29.55%-9.90%43.04%21.66%68.21%-10.64%29.03%9.88%11.77%15.68%-4.16%33.20%1.72%44.05%3.31%41.91%28.11%3.37%0.09%26.24%34.42%18.62%12.53%-4.15%56.22%110、6.58%16.36%24.25%0.99%64.71%42.39%59.41%34.02%62.33%5.16%10.04%0.04%15.76%27.99%44.59%78.57%64.88%48.32%25.62%1.11%11.75%64 21%57 38%30.54%16.75%8.53%35.52%30.39%21.95%14.29%-2.32%9.79%37.38%29.06%4.96%-25.46%17.62%69.07%23.64%44.16%-0.88%-5.54%13.53%16.68%23.69%15.51%34.44%33.59%40.31%100.65%3.84%2111、7.97%4.51%13.27%346.22%30.37%4.79%6.25%6.01%29.01%21.21%17.54%29.16%-1.71%9.47%38.56%-29.04%-0.89%34.65%111.45%47.06%61.57%20.14%31.76%17.34%27.62%30.59%25.83%19.10%11.28%7.94%46.13%12.36%71.54%-5.73%34.04%18.26%12.61%2.13%-6.62%14.32%33.92%9.56%81.84%-1.43%50.73%16.66%10.88%13.54%9.31%14.40%51.92%6112、1.69%63.91%41.97%38.79%3.05%11.07%35.36%36.59%22.34%-11.59%13.92%52.36%26.03%35.67%4.60%-3.88%12.06%18.52%-3.07%10.48%18.77%9.62%33.65%34.86%11.79%28.66%1.33%10.98%140.77%-3.89%1.55%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数总收入增速总收入增速47.79%39.06%4.29%28.03%29.55%9.88%3.37%24.25%5.76%44.59%28.95%16.75%15.21%15.51%11.68%30.37%28113、.82%9.47%5.17%40.85%22.46%10.27%13.93%36.59%19.09%12.06%-1.91%11.79%15.44%3.3.13.3.1工业软件经营韧性凸显,工业软件经营韧性凸显,收入保持良好增长态势收入保持良好增长态势图表:2021年以来工业软件公司营收增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所373.3.23.3.2工业软件毛利保持较好增速工业软件毛利保持较好增速,Q2Q2 承压明显承压明显24H1,24H1,工业软件行业工业软件行业1111家典型公司总毛利为家典型公司总毛利为55.2455.24亿元,同114、比增速为亿元,同比增速为11.56%;11.56%;以中位数法分析,以中位数法分析,2424H1H1工业软工业软件行业毛 利增速中位数8.75%。分季度来看,分季度来看,2424Q1,Q1,工业软件行业工业软件行业1111家典型公司总毛利为家典型公司总毛利为24.8424.84亿元,同比增速为亿元,同比增速为17.65%,217.65%,24 4Q2Q2 总毛利为总毛利为30.40亿元,同比增速7.03%。以中位数法分析,24Q1工业软件行业11家典型公司的毛利增速中位数为33.00%,24Q2 这一数值则 大幅降至3.45%。工业软件公司季度毛利增速中位数 工业软件公司季度总毛利增速60%5115、0%40%30%20%10%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2一工业软件公司半年度毛利增速中位数 一一工业软件公司半年度毛利增速45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所图表:21Q1-24Q2 工业软件公司单季度度归母净利润增速变化趋势图表:21H1-24H1 工业软件公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所3821Q1 2116、1Q221Q221Q321Q321Q421Q422Q122Q1季度同比增速季度同比增速22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q22Q 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H121H221H222H122H122H222H223H123H123H223H224H124H1宝信软件宝信软件43.54%23.52%44.19%41.94%18.68%9.48%6.64%19.12%25.44%24.29%20.62%-15.47%9.13%8.43%B1.42%2.91%13.45%13.117、72%24.81%-0.81%8.75%华大九天华大九天52.90%61.60%26.75%34.02%63.29%5545015.18%19.39%3300913.97%58.10%31.09%58.50%17.75%4.85%柏楚电子柏楚电子44.67%89.51%12.92%-1.41%-23.00%-0.33%18.68%42.39%83.76%38.47%71.21%41.70%30.81%108.47%27.34%14.29%8.40%64.56%5492%35.18%广立微广立微33.13%67.71%17.80%93.75%101.93%44.76%16.66%6.29%55.118、47%37.37%5990%58.85%55.51%9.82%41.79%中望软件中望软件48.81%43.67%9.44%44.60%1.80%-10.85%4.53%-3.72%31.38%48.46%20.01%30.50%2.92%18.50%45.73%29.404-5.66%0.70%40.90%26.46%12.07%概伦电子概伦电子36.68%33.45%22.09%43.50%40.21%58.76%18.49%-5.12%1.56%33.72%37.87%26.16%41.50%83.74%-1.08%36.00%赛意信息赛意信息71.33%54.89%33.40%31.3119、3%45.43423.99%17.1506.170-3.46%-8.13%15.59%8.50%11910%2.19%60.83%B2.39%32.24%10.82%-6.16%2.28%6.42%鼎捷软件鼎捷软件12.39%6.69%13.34%90.20%14.56%12.78%-2.35%14.83%12.37%5.32%0.45%6.80%5.44%3.45%8.86%7.71%13.43%7.78%7.92%4.44%4.21%索辰科技索辰科技11.95%132.75%344.49%18.39%474.59%-38.71%90.36%28.64%67.21%能科科技能科科技.42%1120、6.20%6.93%21.29%22.38%14.63%7.73%30.97%28.86%57.36%58.77%-7.60%46.97%-31.32%28.67%14.16%18.18%20.17%43.85%20.04%1.92%浩辰软件浩辰软件12.58%30.16%4.59%15.12%2.41%1.10%-7.81%8.86%21.89%10.19%1.67%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数48.12%33.59%21.42%36.68%22.38%14.63%7.73%19.12%28.86%44.76%16.66%6.80%33.00%3.45%38.58%30.90%15.81%1121、2.27%40.90%10.19%8.75%总毛利增速总毛利增速26.57%29.08%20.31%2.25%17.65%7.03%28.00%9.43%11.56%3.3.23.3.2工业软件毛利保持较好增速工业软件毛利保持较好增速,Q2Q2 承压明显承压明显资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 39图表:2021年以来工业软件公司毛利增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.3.23.3.2工业软件毛利率工业软件毛利率Q2整体稳定,个股分化明显整体稳定,个股分化明显总体来看,24H1工业软件11家代表性公司毛利率总体同比略有下降,从23H1 的48.84%降至24H1122、的47.20%。分季度来看,24Q1工业软件11家代表性公司毛利率总体同比明显下降,从23Q1的47.97%降至24Q1的43.81%;24Q2 总体毛利率则有所上升,从23Q2 的49.52%升至24Q2 的50.39%。24H124H1 工业软件公司毛利率大部分基本保持平衡,小部分标的毛利率波动较大,如索辰科技24H1 毛利率下降16.72pcts、概伦电子增长4.80pcts、华大九天下降4.16pcts。图表:22H1-24H1工业软件公司半年度毛利率变化趋势 图表:22Q1-24Q2 工业软件公司单季度归母净利润增速变化趋势-工业软件公司半年度总毛利率60%50%40%30%20%1123、0%0%22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一工业软件公司季度总毛利率60%50%40%30%20%10%0%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所23Q4 24Q1 24Q240中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比变动季度同比变动21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比变动半年度同比变动21H121H1 21H2124、21H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 2 24H14H1宝信软件宝信软件华大九天华大九天柏楚电子柏楚电子广立微广立微中望软件中望软件概伦电子概伦电子赛意信息赛意信息鼎捷软件鼎捷软件索辰科技索辰科技能科科技能科科技浩辰软件浩辰软件0.02%0.77%2.16%1.87%3.76%5 75%1.52%.36%0.02%1.86%7.33%5.23%5.18%56%0.84%4.22%7.08%4.0495.71%0.87%0.90%0.110%0.70%4%.53%4.22%0.66%2.24%9.34%0.54%7.31%3.18%0.34%2.40%125、7.08%0.11%.39%0.19%0.23%4.81%4.01%0.59%.99%3.90%4.35%1.62%4.62%1.16%1.05%3.17%3.71%3.37%1.65%0.28%0.04%6.77%0.44%9.26%0.17%0.92%2.19%.85%0.85%0.00%.65%1.93%2.03%2.30%1.23%3.61%4.63%0.26%1.15%6.61%2.31%7.90%0.09%4.80%-3.22%3.81%9.15%0.00%0.27%1.28%5.24%1.72%6.91%1.58%5.96%6.21%5.39%51.19%0.95%40.31%3126、.69%.39%1.00%9.80%9.29%1.99%1.38%4.11%1.01%9.01%0.32%7.58%0.413%0.7 8%9.95%0.85%4.0541.82%4.11%78%5.80%2.09%0.80%8.02%1.14%58%0.81%5.38%1.27%3.43%36.26%1.46%.81%0.84%E60%176%06.94%.15%0.17%78%4 78%-Q.89%-Q.90%0.07%.17%93%84%89%72%60%05%93%47%38%331529%3.97%340%37%74%18%84%78%.81%229%10.34%.80%.01%33127、%.79%68%66%50%55%54%.64%24%31633%16%92%0920%0.24%30%45%73%72%75%11%-013%19.89%t 46%2|03%36%13 0.46%-0.89%1.06%.86%18%毛利率变动中位数毛利率变动中位数总毛利率变动总毛利率变动0.38%1.69%60%0.10%-2.24%0.59%1.62%0.28%0.00%6.93%0.27%0.05%1.28%2.15%1.00%6.62%-0.43%4.16%0.81%0.88%-0.89%1.55%0.26%-1.39%-0.34%3.40%1.33%5.13%0.24%-1.64%3128、.3.23.3.2工业软件毛利率工业软件毛利率Q2整体稳定,个股分化明显整体稳定,个股分化明显资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 41图表:2021年以来工业软件公司毛利率变动对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.3.33.3.3工业软件利润端保持正工业软件利润端保持正增长,增长,Q2 承压开始显现承压开始显现整体而言,工业软件公司在整体而言,工业软件公司在2424H1H1体现了较好的体现了较好的盈利表现。盈利表现。2424H1H1工业软件工业软件1111家代表性公司合计实现归母净利家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润19.48亿 元,同比增长9.17%,增速基本与营收总体增129、速一致。分季度来看,24Q1 工业软件11家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润7.57亿元,同比增长18.03%,24Q2 合计实现归母净 利润11.91亿元,增速则降至4.20%,增长压力开始显现。图表:21H1-24H1 工业软件公司半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2工业软件公司单季度归母净利润增速变化趋势一工业软件公司季度归母净利润增速中位数 一工业软件公司季度总归母净利润增速60%50%40%30%20%10%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4 2 30 23Q2230323 0 424Q124Q2-10%-20%工业软件公司半年度归母净130、利润增速中位数一工业软件公司半年度归母净利润增速40%30%20%10%-20%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所0%-10%23H123H222H224H121H121H222H142季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H131、221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H23H2 2 24H124H1宝信软件宝信软件华大九天华大九天柏楚电子柏楚电子广立微广立微中望软件中望软件概伦电子概伦电子赛意信息赛意信息鼎捷软件鼎捷软件索辰科技索辰科技能科科技能科科技浩辰软件浩辰软件44.39%126.39%52.83%268.02%-67.28%40.11%37.62%104.54%77.66%2.38%35.27%31.11%58.41%20.05%4.45%23.50%62.6%28.31%21.37%-5.88%106.09%-5.65%38.71%-8.69%34.78%14.85%64.34132、%-13.20%19.81%440.78%706.20%28.26%-1.93430.48%1.24%124.47%19.11%222.28%138.90%2.90%21.46%-0.12%7.29%9.93%26.81%-15.32%2.91%-65.12%548.01%9.98%59.76%12.61%62.71%16.30%4.90%134.08%-69.564 6.41%5.04%89.99%66.17%9.66%101.71%28.52%132.03%-10.37%110.51%225.57%-37.31%3183036.53%-23.56%23.74%109.26%58.51%42133、.92%198.23%-91.61%-26.27%-9.06%-41.92%75.21%38.57%31.64%20.96%51.42%15.35%-68.69%-339.65%25.154-3.56%57.03%43.72%-6.95%3.98%59.65%68.71%12.12%126.01%-292.75%30.11%18.00%7.24%-39.19%-44.15%18.19%63.75%46.55%-667.92%44.94%7285.90%-216.45%-8.73%9.00%30.22%-27.06%11.82%-51.80%29.42%35.21%92.82%-486.16%-134、76.48%11.539260.35%-37.37%-10.73%40.44%11271%7429%19.36%331 91%34)84%39.23%9.47%43 B3%3044%42 0%3157%7.07%105K 2%-16776%108 6%17 9%38 28%22 80%0180%17 27%-2843%33.75%2132%8.22%73 58%67 90%72 98%7129%27 08%28 12%4.33%1727%107 30%46.08%3870-96 46%96 6%-67 30%32%-11 91%56 68%10.29%1645%19 2%58.35%13.00135、%46.85%314 5%27 79%15!4%-0 0%11 88%-27 45%4.56%-54.81%35 67%88 90%56 3%6402 04%34.8%1718%107 31%7%-1588%归母净利润增速中位数归母净利润增速中位数总归母净利润增速总归母净利润增速48.61%36.45 78%.37%4.85%1.24%2.91%16.30%-10.37%13.53423.74%34.29%-3.56%25.41%-7.24%1.40%9.00%8.03%11.53%4.20%37.649 31.01%3.93%24.20%10.29%26.01%-0.70%1.40%-9.1136、7%9.17%3.3.33.3.3工业软件利润端保持正增长,工业软件利润端保持正增长,Q2 承压开始显现承压开始显现图表:2021年以来工业软件公司归母净利润增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所433.4.13.4.1能源能源ITIT:经营韧性体现,经营韧性体现,2 24 4H1H1营收保持正增长营收保持正增长 20242024年以来,能源年以来,能源ITIT公司紧抓电力体制改革发展主线,在电改催化下实现了较好的收入增公司紧抓电力体制改革发展主线,在电改催化下实现了较好的收入增长态势。长态势。2424H1H1能源能源ITIT7 家代 137、表性公司实现营收73.47亿元,同比增长3.45%;若以中位数法分析,24H1能源IT7 家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为 16.24%,较23H1的20.97%略有回落但环比23H2 的9.35%有明显提速。Q2Q2 整体营收增速有所滑落,经营韧性充分体现。整体营收增速有所滑落,经营韧性充分体现。分季度来看,24Q1 能 源IT7 家代表性公司实现营收31.71亿元,同比 增长-0.72%,24Q2 实现营收41.75亿元,同比增长6.85%。以中位数法分析,24 Q1能源IT7 家代表性公司的营收增速 中位数为16.27%,24Q2 这一增速中位数稍有回落,降至10.66%,但仍体现了较好的138、经营韧性。图表:21H1-24H1能源IT公司半年度营收增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 能 源IT公司单季度度营收增速变化趋势一 能源IT公司半年度收入增速中位数 一 能源IT公司半年度总收入增速25%20%15%10%5%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一能 源IT公司季度收入增速中位数 一35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21Q121Q2210321Q422Q122Q222Q3 220 4-5%-10%-15%能 源IT公司季度总收入增速23Q123Q223Q3 23Q424Q124Q2资料来源:W139、ind,中泰证券研究所 44中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 2222Q4Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2 21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1国网信通国网信通朗新集团朗新集团远光软件远光软件理工能科理工能科云鼎科技云鼎科技科远智精140、科远智精国能日新国能日新14.49922.44%91 30%2.71%12.04%93.74%8.22%17.479-9.11%14.15%8.79%36.62%66.81%12.17%39.87%24.84930.09%217.52%29.23%25.97%3.50%8.68%5.44%24.34%L.33%22.70%12.71%21.41%13.73%4.17%1.18%35.81%14.32%3.74%6.72%20.69%1.32%5.32%8638%35.91%33.42%10.36%22.31%24.58%-1.09%5.16%13.77%35.82%14.04%11.42%18141、.47%14.01%7.82%30.51%32.87%34.00%9.8206.56416.64%8.74%-8.74%51.69%25.27%9.11%5.99%15.18%17.57%59.81%5.56%22.98%2.27%0.84%16.27%52.20%30.08%25.75%10.66%2.98%6.78%20.27%20.51%6.72%13.20%6.79988%-93.04997%6.30%.57%2 48%12.09%2.31%23.01%9.11%27.06%62.03%25.50%18.06%1.80%1.66%5.66%3.11%8.62%4.49%20.92%4.142、12%6.20%20.97%7.17%36.89%23.13%34.1493.85%9.35%6.20%5.70%-9.84%20.73%22.23%5.0902.67%3.57%8.60%38.01%6.24%8.67%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数总收入增速总收入增速14.49%2.71%8.22%25.39%25.97%22.34%1271%5.22%14.17%19.36%5.32%-7.81%13.77%6.34%14.01%2.67%8.74%-9.43%9.11%15.70%16.27%-0.72%10.66%6.85%11.34%8.94%19.11%12.14%1.80%0.4143、6%20.97%4.29%9.35%6.61%16.24%3.45%3.4.13.4.1能源能源ITIT:经营韧性体现,经营韧性体现,2424H1H1 营收保持营收保持正增长正增长图表:2021年以来能源IT公司营收增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所453.4.2能源IT:毛利稳定正增长,毛利率进一步提升24H1,能 源IT行业7家典型公司总毛利为27.85亿元,同比增速为7.04%,增速较23H1 的11.50%有所回落;以中位数 法分析,24H1工业软件行业毛利增速中位数为9.47%,增速同样略有回落。分季度来看,24Q1 能 144、源IT行业7家典型公司总毛利为12.09亿元,同比增速为8.67%,24Q2 总毛利为15.76亿元,同比增速5.81%。以中位数法分析,24Q1 能 源IT行业7家典型公司的毛利增速中位数为24.16%,24Q2 这一数值则大幅降至10.25%。一 能源IT公司半年度毛利增速中位数一能源IT公司半年度毛利增速25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H223H1 23H2 24H135%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%一一能源IT公司季度毛利增速中位数21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q3 能源IT公司季度总毛利增速145、22Q4 23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2中 泰 证 券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES图表:21Q1-24Q2 能 源IT公司单季度毛利增速变化趋势图表:2 1H1-24H1 能 源IT公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所46%季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 146、2222H1H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1国网信通国网信通朗新集团朗新集团远光软件远光软件理工能科理工能科云鼎科技云鼎科技科远智慧科远智慧国能日新国能日新0.59%30.46%9.2424.21%5.82%34.82-4.65%11.47%36.01%5.27%1.05%8.99%32.08%7.25%14.82%3.00%74%84.14%38.01%44.60%-2.93%19.0%8.39918.42%91.70%5.91%18.03%27.16%14.88%2.38%4.96%4.98%34.39%21.50%11.92%35.01%4.5147、8%3.2 1%18.43%-48.74%26.81%14.09%-5.01%24.75%-2.50%102 43%29.37%40.05%15.67%6.23%19.10%10.11%19.54%42.17%38.74%17.30%17.57923.1496.99%30.80%1.92%41.18%25.09%8.11%4.20%13.72%1.23%194.79%9.92%74%07%99%21%16%87%50%21.629%64.01%13.99%14.68%4.86%27.97%10.25%14.73%4.26%7.36%34.77%2.02%4.61%14.21%18.51%0.6148、5%7.07%6.28%19.90%88.86%18.35%27.76%16.59%-21.93%3.78%0.11%4064%13.13%24.70%-4.51%1.00%21.24%4.62%49.84%36.38%39.28%10.92%11.76%11.00%11 03%11.63%66.99%22.00%1.315.35 -3.0820.98 9.47%29.6416.60%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数总毛利增速总毛利增速30.46%5.82%.47%7.13%14.82%10.00%8.39%7.38%21.50%18.63%4.58%11.85%24.75%15.38%19.10149、%B.77%17.57%9.41%9.92%17.42%24.16%8.67%10.25%5.81%14.50%9.41%17.07%8.45%3.78%-2.31%21.24%11.50%11.63%14.37%9.47%7.04%整体而言,整体而言,2424H17H17 家代表性的能源家代表性的能源ITIT公司除远光软件外,其余均实现了毛利正增长,其中科远智慧、理工能科、国能公司除远光软件外,其余均实现了毛利正增长,其中科远智慧、理工能科、国能 日新三家毛利增速较快,分别同比增长29.64%/20.98%/16.60%。按季度来看,按季度来看,2424Q17Q17 家代表性的能源家代表性的150、能源ITIT公司中,除国网信通外,其余公司中,除国网信通外,其余6 6家均为毛利正增长,且家均为毛利正增长,且除朗新集团外其余除朗新集团外其余5 5家毛家毛 利增速均为两位数。到24Q2后,能源IT公司毛利增速开始出现一定分化,国网信通、科远智慧均取得两位数增速的增长,而远光软件、云鼎科技的单季度毛长,而远光软件、云鼎科技的单季度毛利则出现下降。利则出现下降。图表:2021年以来能源IT公司毛利增速对比3.4.23.4.2能源能源ITIT:毛利稳定正增长,毛利率毛利稳定正增长,毛利率进一步提升进一步提升中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所7.151、13.30.24.31.23.25.473.4.23.4.2能源能源ITIT:毛利稳定正增长,毛利率毛利稳定正增长,毛利率进一步提升进一步提升整体而言,能源IT行业在24H1毛利率普遍有所增长,7家公司的总体毛利率从23H1的36.63%进一步升至24H1的 37.91%。分季度来看,能源IT行业24Q1毛利率提升明显,从23Q1 的34.83%升至24Q1 的38.12%;Q2 行业毛利率则略有承压,从23Q2的38.11%略降至24Q2的37.74%。图表:21H1-24H1能源IT公司半年度毛利率变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 能 源IT公司单季度毛利率变化趋势一 一能源IT公司季度152、总毛利率21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2一能 源IT公司半年度总毛利率22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H140%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21H1 21H2资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 4850%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比变动季度同比变动21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23153、Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 2 23Q43Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比变动半年度同比变动21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H1国网信通国网信通2.51%3.41%0.72%1.59%0.79%0.12%0.91%3.77%0.59%0.38%5.08%0.03%0.18%1.93%1.33%0.80%0.31%2.75%0.08%1.4801.26%朗新集团朗新集团7.0%3.89%0.45%7.97%7.86%2.07%3.14%0.33%2.03%0.42%-2.01%5.13%3.05154、00.86%1%1.1远光软件远光软件1%3.82%3.19%.04%2%3.97%6.11%1.69%0.07%0.33%8.25%0.92%7.03%5%93%3.65%7.02%-0.98%0.13%2.44%0.3 0%理工能科理工能科5.1102.44%1.22%0.93%2.41%5.62%0.71%7.75%3.16%6.10%1.81%2%2.43%1.34%云鼎科技云鼎科技8%10.68%23.16%8.71%3.38%15.35%4.98%4.58%7.07%6.10%6.81%9.83%47.96%2.62%14.62%12.01%3.57%6.94%-8.540科远智慧155、科远智慧7.90%2.12%5.05%5.31%6.01%4.56%2.8 4%4.16%20.29%0.52%6.91%-1.96%0.48%3.50%1.73%4.15%国能日新国能日新8.179%3.06%0.48%3.36%1.97%3.00%4.97%2.66%0.13%1.85%15.00%9.01%5.00%2.04%2.53%-0.13%1.19%毛利率变动中位数毛利率变动中位数1%1%0.72%5.97%0.79%0.12%0.91%3.36%97%0.33%.16%-0.03%0.52%.85%0.20%1.71%1.96%0.48%53%48%1%总毛利率变动总毛利率变动156、-3.60%0.72%0.22%.52%73%14%44%0.9%29%0.37%.17%0.97%.37%248%3.4.23.4.2能源能源IT:IT:毛利稳毛利稳定正增长,毛利率进一步提升定正增长,毛利率进一步提升图表:2021年以来能源IT公司毛利率变动对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所493.4.33.4.3能源能源IT:Q2 利润增速回升,利润增速回升,2424H1归母净利润持续较快增长归母净利润持续较快增长整体而言,能源IT公司在24H1 体现了较好的盈利表现。24H1能源IT7 家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润6.86亿元157、,同 比增长13.03%,快于同期营收总体增速。以中位数法分析,24H1能源IT7 家代表性公司的归母净利润增速中位数为 4.69%,较23H1的8.19%有所回落但仍为正增长。分季度来看,24Q1 能源IT7 家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润1.45亿元,同比下降9.69%,但24Q2 即合计实现归母净 利润5.41亿元,增速大幅回升至21.22%,行业景气度持续提升。250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%一能源IT公司季度归母净利润增速中位数一能源IT公司季度总归母净利润增速21Q121Q221Q321Q4 22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q158、424Q124Q2一能源IT公司半年度归母净利润增速中位数一能源IT公司半年度归母净利润增速120%100%80%60%40%20%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-20%-40%-60%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所图表:21H1-24H1 能源IT公司半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 能源IT 公司单季度归母净利润增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所50季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q159、222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H22H1 1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1国网信通国网信通朗新集团朗新集团远光软件远光软件理工能科理工能科云鼎科技云鼎科技科远智慧科远智慧国能日新国能日新4.533.639122.57%37.91%2.45-80.78%24.05%3.52%131.74%29130.92.70%140.60%12.14%4.67%2.76%57.1160、3%-35.22%-49.88%199.36%4.83L01.18%3.14%-26.48%-29.00%-17.13%10.12%22.22%45.66%2.74%-22.39%524.87%144.05%27.16%25.03%65.73%8.01%-181.57%161.85%3539.91%-1.21%46.93%60.95%4.99912.28%801.18%121.41%96.01%-2.27%52.39%3.51%6.76%62.29%47.34%44.27%50.73%22.70%1.63%17.29%-55.85%33.76%20.86%26.98%75.81%9.90%22161、.96%193.86%-114.18%6.11%83.22%-19580%17.61%142.57%10086A322.18%18.71%24.01%14.93%42.28%89.21%141.29%102.33%-1.72%29.57%2.55%55.94%5.91%4.71%22.33%89.99%10.42%6.31%61.13%3.11%38.63%30.89%25.34%30.96%24.09%55.59%6.62%-443.31263.43%61437.246.79%8.19%54.70%3.64%1.49%273.12%59.80%57.29%1.36%59.96%7.79%20162、.85%73.73%-125.44%11.06%6.95%56.9 4%37.0 9%101.979113.43%153.5594.69%归归 母母 净净 利利 润润 增增 速速 中中 位位 数数总总 归归 母母 净净 利利 润润 增增 速速3.63%2.45%24.05%47.819%2.76%12.69%3.14%12.96%27.16%21.5408.01%-59.66%46.93%15.20%6.76%-9.92%17.29%-11.48%22.96%214.05%18.71%-9.69%24.01%21.22%4.23%7.56%3.11%6.11%6.62%38.09%8.19%-163、4.40%11.06%96.46%4.69%13.03%3.4.33.4.3能源能源IT:Q2 利润增速回升,利润增速回升,2424H1归母净利润持续较快增长归母净利润持续较快增长图表:2021年以来能源IT公司归母净利润增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所51一智能出行公司季度收入增速中位数 一智能出行公司季度总收入增速40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q23.5.13.5.1智能出行:政策催化叠加产业变革,智164、能出行板块智能出行:政策催化叠加产业变革,智能出行板块营收高增营收高增政策催化叠加产业变革,智能出行板块营收高化叠加产业变革,智能出行板块营收高增。增。20242024年以来,国家及各地方层面陆续出台低空经济、智能车路云产年以来,国家及各地方层面陆续出台低空经济、智能车路云产 业的相关支持鼓励政策,同时叠加自动驾驶产业技术变革与落地试点不支持鼓励政策,同时叠加自动驾驶产业技术变革与落地试点不断推进,智能出行板块在断推进,智能出行板块在20242024年迎来较快发展年迎来较快发展 时期。24H1智能出行产业10家代表性公司实现营收233.07亿元,同比增长19.80%;以中位数法分析,24H1智165、能出行 产业10家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为14.62%,同环比均提升。一 智能出行公司半年度收入增速中位数 一智能出行公司半年度总收入增速21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 5230%25%20%15%10%5%0%图表:21H1-24H1智能出行产业公司半年度营收增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 智能出行产业公司单季度营收增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q321Q3 21166、Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2 21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1德赛西威德赛西威四维图新四维图新中科创达中科创达千方科技千方科技虹软科技虹软科技莱斯信息莱斯信息通行宝通行宝经纬恒润经纬恒润-W-W 万集科技万集科技 金溢科技金溢科技78.30%40.63%31.57%19.66%78.80%48.81%7.50%13.87%8.80%0.60%167、16.98%60.47%77.84%87.73%30.47%17.08%32.54%60%2320.80%29.99%71.55%30.61%93.72%73.03%-1.38%30.85%5.19%49.92%83.65%53.86%60.00%19.78%9.97%45.81%46.50%26.11%23.17%9.39%16.17%-2.71%48.12%5.33%46.58%13.31%21.20%66.83%6.71%40.87%34.25%11.91%46.36%9.85%35.63%47.62%6.00%9.40%38.82%39%-1.32%13.21%32.07%13.71%168、26.80%13.71%1.18%19.50918.31%233.50%16.84%4.26%43.33%-1.24%45.17%6.38%-0.43%-0.81%42.12%13.32%39.48%-0.35%67.94%11.14%55.15%15.17%1.0349.62%26.51%14.16%20.62%13.15%3.22%11.95%54.24%36.67%14.16%17.72%18.85%-3.32%23.23%37.27%6.44%18.67%41.78%0.04%1.01%0.74%13.93%38.62%14.77%20.35%50.64%15.35%27.50%20.169、91%-7.27%11.06%10.20%12.14921.32%18.72%1.00%13.06%57252455%6144%11.04%38%5245 09%83 59%30.55%57.02954.11%93%5 80%1294%54%7 73%56.93%14.22%46.17%44%1 78%817%21.24%62%6030%55.39%6|25%22.05%36 87%09%12.65%24.78%593%648736.16%9.71%0.32%4%29.73%15.28%27.61%61%17%20%54.64%08%11%14.12%22.51%2.70%22.23%26.7170、4%521%292%34.02%1108%39%6|24%1197%21.02%1818%19.43%17.28%2529收入增速中位数收入增速中位数总收入增速总收入增速16.98%13.87%17.08%1.91%9.32%28.23%35.63%11.39%5.27%7.48%8.76%18.25%13.65%26.92%18.20%22.78%14.35%22.55%12.60%17.52%17.79%10.44%14.22%12.65%8.73%17.90%9.67%14.62%24.55%19.80%受到政策催化及产业变革、商业化探索加速的促进,智能出行板块10家上市公司里,除中科创171、达外,其余9家在24H1 均实现了营收正增长,即使是中科创达,其智能汽车业务线在24H1 仍然实现了4.34%的营收正增长。图表:2021年以来智能出行产业公司营收增速对比3.5.1.5.1智能出行:政智能出行:政策催化叠加产业变革,智能出行板块营收高增策催化叠加产业变革,智能出行板块营收高增资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 53中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.5.2智能出行:毛利增长承压,连续两季度毛利增速下行24H 1,智能出行板块10家上市公司总毛利为62.22亿元,同比增长5.61%,增速慢于同期营收增速;以中位数法分析,24H1 智能出行板块10家上市公司172、毛利增速中位数为-0.71%,增速同环比均转负。分季度来看,24Q1 智能出行板块10家上市公司总毛利为28.79亿元,同比增速为8.07%,24Q2 总毛利为33.43亿元,同比增速收窄至3.57%。若以中位数法分析,24Q1 智能出行板块10家上市公司的毛利增速中位数尚为14.02%,24Q2 这一数值即降至-3.16%,转为负增长。图表:21Q1-24Q2 智能出行产业公司单季度毛利增速变化趋势一智能出行公司季度毛利增速中位数 一智能出行公司季度总毛利增速40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q4220122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223173、Q323Q424Q124Q2-5%-10%-15%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一智能出行公司半年度毛利增速中位数 -一智能出行公司半年度毛利增速21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1中 泰 证 券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES图表:21H1-24H1 智能出行产业公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势20%15%10%5%0%-5%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所54季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124174、Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 2222H1H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1德赛西威德赛西威四维图新四维图新中科创达中科创达千方科技千方科技虹软科技虹软科技莱斯信息莱斯信息通行宝通行宝经纬恒润经纬恒润-W W万集科技万集科技金溢科技金溢科技119.28%17.60%59.86%16.94%4.58%26 982.67%46.48%20.57%3%8.4041.47%54.56%91.79%29.20%8.87%59%9.10%21.69%51.59%B6.33%34.28%58.43%9.12%8175、.26%27.31%1.99%67.05%90.12%725%24.49%2.01%26.26%15.3027.69%0.31%0.17%5536%7.96%3%0.32%9.03%65.35%57.89%37.30%529203.49%6.55%2.224%1.56%07%0 49%2.82%26%28.56%39.37%9.41%4.14%5.94%15.21%3.20%45%117.22%11.59%27.26%0.23%.82%23.2994.7 0%7.99%5.80%54.59%140.31%2.70%4.2108.03%2.28%5019%6.08%52.72%4.72%43.5176、5%4.26%24.53%6.78%9.45%8.3193.6701.91922.01%9.22%33.51%2.77%54.05%333.29%36.07%74%9.81%4.53%5.10%6.53%41.57%7.53%20.03%7.37%1.48%2.98%4.47%8.95%3.57%2.40%9 52%3.76%33.54%0.26%4.66%3.95%8.56%24.38%72.92%38.49%7.25%75.86919.13%70.48%95%2%90.294 61%88.47%32.22%37.41%22.62%.68%2440%1421%60.71%88.19%51.2177、8%15.86%50.19%24%12%32%14 68%99%39.43%42.16%.97%6.94%38.44%44%19.16%16.51%24.90%74.28%17.26%64%56%50%36.12%23.59%33.67%9%9%20%40.66%5710%42%5537%21.71%25%12.30%69%38.73%10.34%119.91%38%90995%36%24%582%36%55%.00%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数总毛利增速总毛利增速17.60%8.40%8.87%-5.12%-5.24%31.66%26.55%5.94%13.70%5.88%5.17%5.26178、%9.33%9.33%5.81%11.94%14.02%8.07%3.16%3.57%15.54%6.76%14.68%16.94%2.16%9.01%5.54%10.74%-0.71%5.61%24H1内,智能出行板块内仅德赛西威、通行宝、金溢科技实现较快的毛利增长,而四维图新、中科创达、莱斯信息、万集科技均出现-10pcts以上的毛利下降。图表:2021年以来智能出行公司毛利增速对比3.5.23.5.2智能出行:毛利增长承压,连续两季智能出行:毛利增长承压,连续两季度毛利增速下行度毛利增速下行中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所5522一179、智能出行公司半年度总毛利率40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%一智能出行公司季度总毛利率3.5.23.5.2智能出行:智能出行:2424H1整体毛利整体毛利率有所下滑率有所下滑整体而言,智能出行产业在整体而言,智能出行产业在2424H1H1毛利率呈现明显下滑,毛利率呈现明显下滑,1010家公司的总体毛利率从家公司的总体毛利率从23H123H1的的30.28%30.28%降至降至24H124H1的的26.70%26.70%。分季度来看,分季度来看,24Q124Q1智能出行产业毛利率从智能出行产业毛利率从23Q123Q1的的30.20%30.20%下降至下降至26.63%;24Q226.180、63%;24Q2从从23Q223Q2的的3 30.36%0.36%降至降至26.75%26.75%。图表:22H1-24H1智能出行产业公司半年度毛利率变化趋势 图表:22Q1-24Q2智能出行产业公司单季度毛利率变化趋势资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H10%561%009%6%降9%4%季度同比变动季度同比变动181、半年度同比变动半年度同比变动21Q121Q221Q321Q421Q422Q122Q122Q222Q222Q322Q322Q422Q4 23Q123Q123Q223Q223Q323Q323Q423Q424Q124Q124Q224Q221H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 2 23H13H1 23H223H2 24H24H德赛西威德赛西威4.68%0.99%-0.23%0.681.08%-0 2%-0.6%3.20%2.7%3.1%4,60%-0.03%-1.5%0.96%2.63%0.31%-0.90%2.08%3 33%2.02%-0.四维图新四维图新4%0.3182、8%6%6%2.40%-0.3%1.8%27.0%11.67%7%20 1%27.5%4%10.38%2.1%0.7 18.48%10.3%21中科创达中科创达-2.1%5.11%3.67%20 3%33%5.95%4 6%0.00%0.58%3 5%3.06%5%-1 1%2%2.24%9.61%1.16%1 7%-2.1%2.5千方科技千方科技2.8%1 3%4.03%-1 4%-0.06%5.0J6%0.92%2.14%-0 3%-0 3%2.8%15.-1 2%2.2%0.25%-2.34%2.90%-0.7%-0.69%9.52 1.虹软科技虹软科技4.5%5%.47%6.12%3 183、o7%0.36%-49%3.69%4.93%-2 8%0.0%0.43%1 6%2.95%1.71%-4.5s%2 9%4.30%0.0.莱斯信息莱斯信息3.96%5.98%3.8%2.9%3 8%0.64%2.03%-0.2%通行宝通行宝-0.7%2.71%0.52%4.56%0.61%3%-0.6%7%9.3 0.49%3.2 2.58%2.40%-3.83%1.0经纬恒润经纬恒润-W-W2 4%84 2%3.6%0 6%-2.2%2.64%4 8 0%-0 9%2%1 5%0%1.8%2.04%1.6 7%4 BE 5万集科技万集科技4.16%584%19 6%22 6%.37%20.7184、%3.90%10.18.1%13.69%17.2%24.64%-0.22%7.24%2.5%21.62%7.94%1.34 21.83%金溢科技金溢科技2%22 4%34 7%24 3%9%3%2.1%0.60%0%-2 0%5.61%0.36%10.52%1.35%18.67%29.%5%1.91%2.55%5.0毛利率变动中位数毛利率变动中位数2.40.38%.03%8.4b%4.7-0.82%-0.47%1%73%1.45%-1.53%3.4D%1.0 6%4.91.24 5.66%0.90 42%3.06总毛利率变动总毛利率变动31%5%4%9%3.57%3 60%3.55%3.31%185、-3.5具体来看,虽然有较强政策和产业变革具体来看,虽然有较强政策和产业变革、商业化落地加持,但这些因素规模化反映在业绩层面仍需一定时间。、商业化落地加持,但这些因素规模化反映在业绩层面仍需一定时间。2424H1智 能出行板块仅金溢科技毛利率同比上升,剩下能出行板块仅金溢科技毛利率同比上升,剩下9 9家公司的家公司的2424H1毛毛利率均有不同程度的下滑。利率均有不同程度的下滑。图表:2021年以来智能出行产业公司毛利率变动对比3.5.23.5.2智能出行:智能出行:2424H1H1 整体整体毛利率有所下滑毛利率有所下滑资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 57中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI 186、SECURITIES3.5.33.5.3智能出行:龙头公司利润下行智能出行:龙头公司利润下行,板块利润大幅下降,板块利润大幅下降 24H124H1智能出行板块智能出行板块1010家上市公司合计实现归母净利润家上市公司合计实现归母净利润2.942.94亿元,同比大幅下降亿元,同比大幅下降67.77%67.77%。不过若以中位数法分析,。不过若以中位数法分析,24H124H1 智能出行板块智能出行板块1010家上市公司的归母净利润增速中位数为家上市公司的归母净利润增速中位数为18.98%,18.98%,较较2323H1H1大幅提速。这主大幅提速。这主要系板块内大体要系板块内大体量公司 仅德赛西威实187、现利润增长,而四维图新、中科创达、千方科技、经纬恒润均出现仅德赛西威实现利润增长,而四维图新、中科创达、千方科技、经纬恒润均出现利润大幅下降或亏损扩大的现利润大幅下降或亏损扩大的现象,从 而拉动整个板块利润大而拉动整个板块利润大幅减少。幅减少。分季度来看,2424 Q1Q1 智能出行板块10家上市公司合计实现归母净利润0.40亿元,同比下降90.08%,24Q2 合计实现归母 净利润2.55亿元,同比下降50.43%,降幅收窄但仍呈大幅下降态势。一智能出行公司季度归母净利润增速中位数 一智能出行公司季度总归母净利润增速150%100%50%0%210121Q221Q321Q4220122022188、2Q322042301230223Q323Q424Q124Q2-50%-100%-150%-200%-智能出行公司半年度归母净利润增速中位数一智能出行公司半年度归母净利润增速40%20%0%2 1H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 58图表:21H1-24H1 智能出行产业公司半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 智能出行产业公司单季度归母净利润增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q189、1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 2323Q1Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1德赛西威德赛西威四维图新四维图新中科创达中科创达千方科技千方科技虹软科技虹软科技莱斯信息莱斯信息通行宝通行宝经纬恒润经纬恒润-W-W万集科技万集科技金溢科技金溢科技312.1%-37.8%64.6%21.6%12190、.7%74.7%103.1%18.9%88.5%55.3%2.2%56.3%89.4%-110.4%37.1%144.2%474%81.5%60.0%-84.5%135.7%70.9%242.5%30 0%51 0%55 7%1.2%117.1%191.6%39.2%126.1%41 4%282.5%55.9%198 2%85.0%378.0%43.8%349.2%419%55.5%3.2%2745.6%431.7%177.2%40.7%272.0%42.2%293.3%106.7%9.0%134 5%135.4%117.2%43.9%269 2%34 1%275.5%75.4%12.0%-1191、2 3%350.8%105.6%3.9%972.3%8.1%161.6%14.9%-15.9%33.2%175.8%3047.8%-17.4%36.2%308.9%7.3%-21.9%30.0%9.9%51.7%101.2%57.5%6.3%106.3%73840-11.5%140.8%1382.8%15.4%49.0%206.1%855.5%102.8%19.3%195.3%-207.8%174.0%50.7%35.6%-19.2%-189.4%406.1%269.1%16.4%65.1%46.1%136.7%21.2%50.7%9.7%119.1%-12.8%94.0%64.0%3.2%9192、3.8%45.0%24.9%46.9%6.899029.2%92.0%-24.6%61.0%65.9%58 8%6.9%5%52.0%-85.7%108.2%60.5%4%37 6%642%687%15.04015%60.8%41.0%36.8%41.7%18.3%35.1928.3%266.3%78.8%13.5%43.1%69 4%1.6%79.5496.2%0.6%13.1%55.2%09.3%16.5%3%21.2%07 8%10.2%38.3%43.4%38 9%53 2%02.6%41.8%38.3%79.2%66.0%60.031.7%12.5%95.4%75.0%70.5%38193、.1%20 6%73.1%95 7%22 3%56 5%8.0%2 4.4%17 3%90 2%归母净利润增速中位数归母净利润增速中位数总归母净利润增速总归母净利润增速12.73%5626%81.47%5337%-7043 2615%-106 5%75419 -59799%-0.49%3245%-27.54%322%0.44%168.07%81%9057%08%1182%50 43%10.30%61.44%35.06%96.24%7.60.205%22.10%.74.92%18.98967.7中 泰 证 券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.5.3智能出行:龙头公司利润下行,板块利润大幅194、下降图表:2021年以来智能出行产业公司归母净利润增速对比资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所59 2024年以来,政务IT行业受政府部门财政资金压力影响,营收表现持续承压。24H1 政务IT 10家代表性公司实现营收 162.10亿元,同比微增0.85%;若以中位数法分析,24H1政务IT 10家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为-16.17%,较 23H1的0.82%大幅回落。Q2Q2承压明显,整体营收增速有所滑落。承压明显,整体营收增速有所滑落。分季度来看,2424 Q1Q1 政务IT 10家代表性公司实现营收71.31亿元,同比增长6.41%,24Q26.41%,24Q2 实现营收90.80亿195、元,同比下降3.13%3.13%。以中位数法分析,24Q1政务IT 10家代表性公司的营收增速中位 数为4.63%,24Q2 这一增速中位数下滑至-13.91%。一政务IT公司季度收入增速中位数 一 政 务IT公司季度总收入增速60%50%40%30%20%10%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2 23Q323Q4 24Q1 24Q2-10%-20%一政务IT公司半年度收入增速中位数 一 一政务IT公司半年度总收入增速40%30%20%10%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-10%-20%3.6.13.6196、.1政务政务IT:财政资金压力持续影响,财政资金压力持续影响,Q2 营收增速转负营收增速转负资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 60图表:21H1-24H1 政务IT公司半年度营收增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 政务IT公司单季度度营收增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 2197、4Q124Q1 24Q224Q2 21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 2 24H14H1科大讯飞科大讯飞易华录易华录太极股份太极股份博思软件博思软件数字政通数字政通新点软件新点软件超图软件超图软件中科江南中科江南南威软件南威软件华宇软件华宇软件77.55%5.17%14.76%85.71%22.15%139.62%21.6328.27%81.32%29.82%65.44%29.77%52.47%5.07%7.50%81.20%189.30%55.01%11.28%92.10%36.80%20.94%23.86%6.44%5198、4.97%29.70%87.92%-8.03%28.83%25.31%16.08%9.30%1.35%38.34%40.17%-9.90%18.65%40.84%12.01%3.17%2.88%31.22%4.89%37.01%18.32%63.16%44.68%24.52%4.50%26.30%52.21%13.42%33.43%66.81%1.95%9.01%35.54%31.90%26.20%-5.92%3.66%18.80%37.62%58.20%17.27%3.44%1.06%15.46%17.59%1.59%17.09%34.27%6.34%63.44%17.64%37.47%-0199、.77%19.17%8.6294.03%6.37%43.14%17.55%28.58%9.68%52.99%55.74%26.86%1.32%14.52%33.54%28.77%41.88%23.96%2.89%54.66%5.56%5.11020.34%22.77%3.97%.77%-8.99%31.47%14.24%78.49%12.27%1.96%63.32%13.28%19.79%18.36%13.45%0.13%26.27%47.41%-9.95%5.73%8.15%4.92%1.11%19.36%26.97%8.95%14.62%1.27%29.77%14.71%47.56%13.200、44%4.37%33.83%61.71%-1.38945.28%24.79%22.93%62 54%6.45%19.25%33.00%62.03%157.04%38.26%67.53%23.21%31.06%11.94%5.12%21.20%0.07%42.90%26.97%39.86%33.61%30.18%7.03%9.66%28.41%16.91%25.25%60.53%9.98%34.80%16.75%20.27%-0.20%3.06%8.16%28.26%11.11%61.88%-2.26%42.82%34.97%23.98%3.90%8.32%04.59%31.93%33.00%2201、5.51%9.37%64.48%5.55%0.31%41.74%16.41%12.11%32.55%12.61%17.09%18.91%34.34%18.34%15.08%27.03%14.00%-7.76%21.13%50.51%5.18%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数总收入增速总收入增速28.27%48.77%30.33%9.30%7.44%17.48%8.96%-0.62%6.33%12.13%-0.26%-14.51%5.20%10.57%5.50%11.17%-7.27%-4.28%6.05%3.74%4.63%6.41%13.91%-3.13%36.45%21.20%8.34%6.1202、7%-1.63%3.59%0.82%10.92%-6.150.58%16.17%0.85%中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.6.13.6.1政务政务IT:财政资金压力持续影响,财政资金压力持续影响,Q2 营收增速转负营收增速转负图表:2021年以来政务IT公司营收增速对比资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所6140%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%一政务IT 公司半年度毛利增速中位数 一一政务IT公司半年度毛利增速21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H140%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%一 一政务IT公司季度毛利增速中位数 一政203、务IT公司季度总毛利增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q 3 22Q4 23Q123Q223Q3/23Q424Q1 24Q23.6.23.6.2政务政务IT:整体毛利微增,行业分化较大整体毛利微增,行业分化较大 24H1,政 务IT行业10家典型公司总毛利为65.63亿元,同比微增1.14%;以中位数法分析,24H1政务IT行业毛利增速 中位数为-16.98%,增速大幅转负。分季度来看,24Q1 政务IT行业10家典型公司总毛利为26.90亿元,同比微增0.20%,24Q2 总毛利为38.73亿元,同比微 增1.80%。以中位数法分析,24Q1政务IT行业10家典型公司的204、毛利增速中位数为3.20%,24Q2则大幅降至-11.68%。图表:21H1-24H1政务IT公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 政务IT 公司单季度毛利增速变化趋势资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES62季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 2323Q4Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速205、半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 2222H1H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1科大讯飞科大讯飞易华录易华录太极股份太极股份博思软件博思软件数字政通数字政通新点软件新点软件超图软件超图软件中科江南中科江南南威软件南威软件华宇软件华宇软件22.49%44.3019.01%10.1%15.26%24.48449.d3%46.85%47.85%8.58%6.72%10.05%26.Q4%26%-17.3%8.8522.3 9.60.15.9581938-663%-5.79%3.8 0%2.4 6%28 2%56 7%1.8%-0.788%35206、8%437%48-8.8807-11.19.425.-0.25842.9250.851%8%4%3%4%3%2%7%5%4%14.83410.3 38.012.0-5.912.4563.72.910.9%7.85%95 43%17%40.42%8.6 4%215%185.3 1%216 8%46 2 7%160%1%7%5%0%3%0%7%3%9%3.69318.013.-4.625.1544.928.522%0%8%7%2%3%89%3%5%2%27.171 9-8.95.68819.5178.016.Q2.977.514.776.15.21.03.6-7.62.712.515.86%21.207、70%315.40%343%21 9%459%191%-3.8%297%55 5%0.9%0%943%5%4%42%6%9%61%35.77%1560%18.11%60.82%3763%1200%24.02%3187%9666%.32%8.19%5.37%6.24%0.19%7.29%7.10%49%87%192102264.03%38%9.35%0.43%40%36%8.69%0.91%24%08%1342.54%8.499 683%503%327%47%2.00%60.01%28.53%538%1.22%2.42%0.97%9.60%9.92%.12%9.32%8.90%5.57%4.26208、%113427.28%23%22.56%3.06%28%56%7.31%6.95%.91%.19%08%00%59%16%40%23%69%73%15%52%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数总毛利增速总毛利增速21.87%35.17%23.59%6.72%4 63%10.08%1.09%-9.28%3.16%-1.14%-9.98%-9.70%1.18%-4.75%8.20%2.90%10.26%-4.91%4.29%7.78%3.20%0.20%11.68%1.80%31.87%10.19%5.85%-1.81%0.87%6.33%4.47%0.41%0.68%2.52%16.98%1.149具209、体来看,24H1科大讯飞连续两个季度实现毛利较快增长,对板块整体毛利率增长有较多贡献。同时更多的标的则在 24H1 内出现毛利下降,其中易华录、南威软件毛利下降较多,分别下降54.00%154.15%。图表:2021年以来政务IT公司毛利增速对比3.6.23.6.2政务政务IT:整整体毛利微增,行业分化较大体毛利微增,行业分化较大63.62%11.84%21.87%98.56%20.06%123.58%14.69%0.84%49.53%1.53%107.42%92.37%22 69%13.39%105.Q6%4.08%32.33%10.98%1%7%6%2%5%7%38%d7%99%35.03210、318.46.332.616.11.25.中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所5%4%2%3%9%5%5%2%5%8%3%5%3%1%6%8%4%3%135810.68%632437113.6.23.6.2政务政务IT:毛利率整体稳定,毛利率整体稳定,Q1下降下降Q2回升回升政务政务ITIT行业在行业在2424H1H1 毛利率整体保持稳定,毛利率整体保持稳定,1 10 0家公司的总体毛利率从家公司的总体毛利率从2323H1H1 的的40.37%40.37%微升至微升至2424H1H1 的的40.49%40.49%。分季度来看。政务IT行业24211、Q1毛利率有所下降,从23Q1的40.07%降至24Q1的37.73%;Q2 行业毛利率则有所回升 从23Q2的40.59%升至24Q2的42.65%。图表:21H1-24H1 政务IT公司半年度毛利率变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 政务IT 公司单季度毛利率变化趋势45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21H1资料来源:Wind,一 政务IT 公司半年度总毛利率 一 一政212、务IT 公司季度总毛利率21H2 22H1中泰证券研究所中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES22H223H223H124H164季度同比变动季度同比变动21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 2 22Q12Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比变动半年度同比变动21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1科大讯飞科大讯飞易易 华华213、 录录太极股份太极股份博思软件博思软件数字政通数字政通新点软件新点软件超图软件超图软件中科江南中科江南南威软件南威软件华宇软件华宇软件2.59%-15.39%-2.-1.43%0.76%-5.0%3.55%7.3 4%-13.84%1.511.-0.1.96.9-2.74.12.7-2.914.3.411.7-6.15.97.3.1-2.40.%5%09%3%6%2%.32-2.38.9-1.67.45.1-2.7.51.56.1B95%0%2%0%D%5%4%5%3.984.4-2.-3 5-3.90.8283.45.111.31%4%1%7%8%9%6%B%1.31.32.78.01.3-214、6.63.25.014.27.25%0%0%5%9%9%5%0%9%0.645.915.75.82.75.410.0-3.20.92.88%3%5%7%8%2%3%9%5%0.240.86.04.97.4-2.311-5.0-8.8-10.58%4%0%b%9%9%2%7%2%4.7284.9-3.4.925.-4.537.11.16.57.55%7%8%5%9%4%6%3%-3.818.6-12.61.95.30.93.2-14.94.02%7%9%0%4%5%3%4%2.44%16.74%-2.29%3.4 b%1.35%4.6%7.07%3.66%5.1 5%0.61%-3.0-3.2-215、0.9-0.60.3-3.-4.0-7.8-9.50%4.515.2%6%4%5%2.6-2.44.24.31.254.80.21.92.72.7 81.0923.872.4-2.90.552.2815.4.944.82-5.4%0.0%7%2.99104.74-0.604.99-2.97-4.0 13.93-2.483.54%0.06%7.62%-2.2%3.1%0.3 7%-0.8%4.31.7%-2.7-0.82%6%613.279.896.72.37-5.74.971.35.344.262%4%-3.2.57.51.1-1.88-8.9-11.2毛利率变动中位数毛利率变动中位数总毛利率216、变动总毛利率变动-0.66%3.18%48%50%13%.53%23.95%.34%3.32%4.57%.91%01%9 6%5%B9%55%3.70%.27%82%7%2.57%.34%95%2.07%3.27%3.18%2.71%2.93%1.69%02%3.31%4.26%0.28%.75%0.38%0.12具体来看,多数政务具体来看,多数政务ITIT公司毛利率在公司毛利率在2424H1H1基本保持稳定,部分如易华录同基本保持稳定,部分如易华录同比下降比下降7.627.62pctspcts,超图软件则同比上升超图软件则同比上升4.38pcts。图表:2021年以来政务IT公司毛利率变动对217、比3.6.23.6.2政务政务IT:毛利率整体稳定,毛利率整体稳定,Q1 下降下降Q2回升回升中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES.3.5B96.57%1.41%3.1%-0.66%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所%6%0.91.713.7-5.50.7%0%5%9%2%7%4%3.05%73%-3.2B%0.26%8%5.563 8D%4%2%-3.6%-13.05.55%4.59%-9.0p%3.4p%4%65110%83.6.33.6.3政务政务IT:24H1IT:24H1 整体延续亏损,整体延续亏损,Q2Q2 转亏转亏整体而言,受到下游需求不景气的影响,政务IT公司218、在24H1延续了前期的亏损状态。24H1 政务IT10 家代表性公司合 计实现归母净利润-11.28亿元,亏损同比扩大5倍。其中科大讯飞、太极股份同比由盈转亏,易华录、南威软件、华宇 软件亏损同比扩大。分季度来看,24Q1 政务IT 10家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润-6.86亿元,亏损同比扩大170%,24Q2 合计实现归母 净利润-4.42亿元,由23Q2 盈利0.70亿元大幅转亏。600%500%400%300%200%100%0%-100%-200%-300%一政务IT公司半年度归母净利润增速中位数政务IT公司半年度归母净利润增速21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 2 H1 23H219、2 24H1400%200%0%-200%-400%-600%-800%-1000%一政务IT公司季度归母净利润增速中位数 政务IT公司季度总归母净利润增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q4 24Q1 24Q2图表:21H1-24H1 政务IT公司半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 政务IT公司单季度归母净利润增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所663.7.1.7.1办公办公&管理软件:经营韧性体现,管理软件:经营韧性220、体现,2424H1H1营收保持正增长营收保持正增长经营韧性较强,经营韧性较强,2424H1H1营收实现较好增长。营收实现较好增长。2424H H1 1办公与管理软件办公与管理软件9 9家代表性公司实现营收家代表性公司实现营收110.76110.76亿元,同比亿元,同比增长7.41%;若以中位数法分析,24 H1办公与管理软件9家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为7.45%,较23H1的10.46%有所回落,但 仍表现出较好的增长态势。Q2Q2整体营收增速有所滑落。整体营收增速有所滑落。分季度来看,2424 Q1Q1 办公与管理软件9家代表性公司实现营收52.00亿元,同比增长12.38%,24Q22221、4Q2 实现营收58.7658.76亿亿元,同比增长3.37%3.37%。以中位数法分析,24Q1 办公与管理软件9家代表性公司的营收增速中位 数为数为11.78%,2411.78%,24Q2Q2 这一增速这一增速中位数有所回落,降至中位数有所回落,降至5.74%5.74%。图表:21H1-24H1办公&管管理软件公司半年度营收增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 办公&管理软件公司单季度营收增速变化趋势一 办公&管理软件公司季度收入增速中位数 一办公&管理软件公司季度总收入增速30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123222、Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所办公&管理软件公司半年度收入增速中位数一办公&管理软件公司半年度总收入增速25%20%15%10%5%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1资 料 来 源:Wind,中泰证券研究所中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES67季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q223、423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2 21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1金山办公金山办公用友网络用友网络税友股份税友股份万兴科技万兴科技泛微网络泛微网络汉得信息汉得信息福昕软件福昕软件普联软件普联软件致远互联致远互联107.74%11.49%1.77%28.45%24.10%10.90%11.05%81.49%66.23%45.67%5.46%22.83%10.07%35.11%14.23%21.07%33.49%37.01%37.43%5.21%14.30%4.08%30.65%4.87%18224、.43%63.48%33.93%19.79%2.40%7.54%5.64%41.11%21.42%11.88%31.74%28.70%12.26%5.39%8.05%3.71%17.26%8.99%10.31%34.52%20.60%16.63%15.00%-4.89%11.28%10.64%9.13%7.64%11.56%13.55%24.35%17.25%14.34%17.37%27.72%9.21%3.42%25.80%18.45%20.04%-8.32%7.16%25.45%13.48%1.30%7.50%18.62%18.99%21.11%15.29%10.65%35.00%13.6225、2%1.14%3.01%10.66%15.17%21.37%16.07%10.32%30.92%15.38%0.45%-2.22%13.35%12.11%9.40%13.58%11.40%26.67%11.35%1.25%10.35%32.74%2.48%17.99%11.51%2.32%12.73%0.87%6.22%9.93%7.78%12.58%16.54%18.61%9.66%0.90%3.13%1.63%16.87%43.10%11.78%5.98%8.51%5.74%-4.43%5.24%5.00%19.13%16.46%30.41%70.90%7.68%13.34%5.94%30226、.96%12.58%15.99%43.49%45.22%27.49%3.24%-1.79%4.88%37.44%12.88%15.00%36.20%30.13%14.47%11.33%0.35%7.46%13.01%9.06%8.94%7.61%15.82%22.07%-0.52%9.84%21.55%18.23%5.09%5.50%9.83%-8.50%21.25%4.73%10.46%32.90%14.72%0.79%0.35%-6.11%13.14%13.87%12.25%5.85%19.23%-3.53%-2.50%10.13%12.20%-7.12%11.09912.93%7.45%227、-1.80%-2.16%3.35%17.99%25.93%-16.01%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数总收入增速总收入增速24.10%22.83%26.51%16.58%18.43%1.69%19.79%12.00%0.31%9.29%1.28%1.93%17.37%17.81%7.50%0.90%13.62%14.38%10.32%0.99%10.35%8.96%7.78%7.52%1.78%2.38%5.74%3.37%15.99%20.59%15.00%11.89%11.33%0.81%9.84%6.97%10.46%6.59%10.13%8.09%7.45%7.41%中泰证券中泰证券ZH228、ONGTAI SECURITIES3.7.13.7.1办公办公&管理软件:经营韧性体现,管理软件:经营韧性体现,2424H1H1 营收保持正增长营收保持正增长图表:2021年以来办公&管理软件公司营收增速对比资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所68图表:21H1-24H1办公&管理软件公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势一办公&管理软件公司半年度毛利增速中位数一办公&管理软件公司半年度毛利增速30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 29H2 24H1-5%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所3.7.23.7.2办公办公&管理软件:毛利稳定正增长,管理软件:毛利229、稳定正增长,Q2Q2 毛利增长有所承压毛利增长有所承压24H1,办公办公&管理软件行业管理软件行业9 9家典型公司总毛利为家典型公司总毛利为72.1672.16亿元,同比增速为亿元,同比增速为8.18%,8.18%,增速较增速较2 23 3H1H1 的的5.61%5.61%有所提升;以有所提升;以 中位数法分析,24H1办公&管理软件行业毛利增速中位数为9.60%,增速同比有所回落。分季度来看,24Q1 办公&管理软件行业9家典型公司总毛利为35.59亿元,同比增速为15.60%,24Q2 总毛利为38.57亿 元,同比增速大幅降至2.46%。以中位数法分析,24Q1办公&管理软件行业9家典型230、公司的毛利增速中位数为13.82%,24Q2 这一数值则大幅降至-0.83%,转为同比下降。一办公&管理软件公司季度毛利增速中位数 一办公&管理软件公司季度总毛利增速40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323 Q424Q124Q2-5%图表:21Q1-24Q2办公&管理软件公司单季度毛利增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所69%季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q322Q3 22231、Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 2222H1H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1金山办公金山办公用友网络用友网络税友股份税友股份万兴科技万兴科技泛微网络泛微网络汉得信息汉得信息福昕软件福昕软件普联软件普联软件致远互联致远互联21.64%13.16%5.11%26.04%24.64%15.74%11.58%99.32%71.54%43.65%15.19%17 0%11.82%3568%-0.94%22.89%30.56%33.24232、%38.54%9.40%10.7%2.33%30.40%23.38%18.88%83.98%4.20%11.84%-1.92%2.77%14.23%41.08%31.68%10.36%42.69%20.88%8.24%9.90%9.96%4.49%14.70%32.06%9.45%13.53%7.56%13.20%11.14%-2.92%11.98%9.32%6.66%5.21%22.13%13.16%19.22%0.71%17.67%18.67%18.54%40.52%1.73%20.50%20.42%21.96%17.15%1.37%22.68%13.23%17.99%6.95%24.70233、%16.67%21.52%4.67%6.58%34.77%13.17%1.2841.62%5.11%18.78%23.67%28.50%17.53%30.22%4.05%1.32%-2.80%28.13%21.28%9.15%15.81%6.24%25.80%-5.22%-1.27%10.39921.98%-6.83%17.45%-2.26%14.23%10.95%-0.26%42.72%9.50%18.36%29.08%13.82%35.28%10.90%-0.38%2.99%5.28%16.58%46.41%19.53%5.57%12.29%0.83%6.50%5.41%19.79%17.234、92%-3.94%35.87%74.61%4.54%1.57%3.92%49%5.60%7.13%4.24%42.57%23.39%1.00%3.06%8.24%37.35%27.98%14.40%48.74%19.01910.70%0.75%2.62%8.20%11.26%17.58%7.27%19.76%11.52%20.63%12.16%6.05%20.77%4.99%2869%4.38%28.94%-6.71%22.61%18.14%1248%3244%13.72%1.30%-0.61%19.47%20.57%13.47%3.53%5.38%17.88%-1.96%21.24%9.93235、%11.26%21.36%9.6021.474.293.47-2.3112.7817.2413.18%20.43毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数总毛利增速总毛利增速24.64%37.64%22.89%20.03%4.20%3.50%11.84%6.55%9.90%10.78%11.14%10.18%8.67%3.30%13.23%-1.66%6.58%13.70%14.05%0.11%9.15%9.06%-2.26%-1.85%3.82%5.60%-0.83%2.46%17.13%26.56%14.40%8.89%0.75%0.43%14.99%3.60%12.48%5.61%-1.96%2.34236、%9.608.18整体而言,24H1除了致远互联外,其余8家公司的毛利都未出现大幅下降的情况,如用友网络、福昕软件在24H1 还取 得21.47%/17.24%的较好毛利增速。季度角度上,除汉得信息、福昕软件外,其余7家公司Q2 毛利增速均慢于其24H1的毛利增速,体现了Q2 办公&管理软 件行业遇到一定经营挑战、毛利增长有所放缓。图表:2021年以来办公&管理软件公司毛利增速对比3.7.23.7.2办公办公&管理软件:毛利稳定正增长,管理软件:毛利稳定正增长,Q2Q2 毛利增长有所承压毛利增长有所承压资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 70中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIE237、S3.7.23.7.2办公办公&管理管理软件:毛利率整体稳中有升软件:毛利率整体稳中有升整体而言,办公&管理软件行业在24H1 毛利率稳中有增,9家公司的总体毛利率从23H1的64.68%进一步升至24H1的 65.15%。分季度来看。办公&管理软件行业24Q1毛利率有所提升,从23Q1的62.80%升至24Q1的64.60%;Q2 行业毛利率则略 有承压,从23Q2 的66.22%略降至24Q2 的65.64%。图表:20H1-24H1办公&管理软件公司半年度毛利率变化趋势 图表:20Q1-24Q2 办公&管理软件公司单季度毛利率变化趋势 一办公&管理软件公司季度总毛利率80%70%60%5238、0%40%30%20%10%0%-办公&管理软件公司半年度总毛利率21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H180%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%20H1 20H2资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 71中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES15%0%5%2%4%0%4%7%15%47季度同比变动季度同比变动21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 239、23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比变动半年度同比变动21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H24H金山办公金山办公用友网络用友网络税友股份税友股份万兴科技万兴科技泛微网络泛微网络汉得信息汉得信息福昕软件福昕软件普联软件普联软件致远互联致远互联3%2 90%-2.64%7.3-0.02%18.9 7%-1 1%3.45%5%-2-21.0.1-0.-24.-0.3%3%20%60%4%9%0%8%7%1.30%8%-2-0.4.0-0.2.32.00.24%2-0.-0.0.01 32.b 1.240、99%3%1%6%7%4%0%7%2%1.59.03.8-0.51 00.20.59.06.3-0.20.929 -0.6.0-0.7%180%8%1%6%7%0%6%-0.311.0.313.2.6.20.1-0.1.00.0.94.3Q2%71%1%3%5%23%5%0.3%1.82%2 6%0.17%4.24%-0.96%9%64%1.87%2%-0.6%5%0.39%1%0.95%0.26%1 0%810.2.9-0.013.7-0.53.86.690.31.30.67%2.10.0%10%2-06.65.4 1 1.51.30.98.01.00%0.0.-0.6%4.76%0%3%4241、%3%5%2%1%0.31.0L.55.-0.9.8-110%6%3%7%1%9%B%6%5%毛利率变动中位数毛利率变动中位数总毛利率变动总毛利率变动1.01%4%21%09 5%37%264%04%45%076%85%69%06%58%21%37%2 49%71%-037%51%58%066%.06%535%0.73%171%80%96%58%0126%77%083%30%23%01%10%0 34%60%336%43%0中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.7.23.7.2办公办公&管理软件:毛利率整体稳中管理软件:毛利率整体稳中有升有升1.21%5.36%28 8%1242、 9%0.40%8%1.45%1.8%2 2%5.63%0.70%2.04%1.82%0.42%1.01%0.45%4.58%2.12%0.71%2.23%2.28%1 1%0.9%8.84%0.37%图表:2021年以来办公&管理软件公司毛利率变动对比资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所8%5%6%7%6%7%5%3%7%5%9%1499%90%79%1.71.b.6.81 5204%0%8%8%6%343%5%2%9%0%6%9%7%6%1%9%6%L%1%6%9%2%5%1%7%8%1%3%1%2%3%0%4%5.-0.3%2%2%4%11.70%66%8.22.00.74%0.0.-29243、%0%3.3%1.722.5.41.2513.7.33.7.3办公办公&管理管理软件:软件:2424H1H1利润回正,利润回正,Q2Q2 利润大幅增长利润大幅增长办公&管理软件行业在24H1 体现了较好的盈利表现。24H1办公&管理软件9家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润1.79亿元,同比大幅转正。以中位数法分析,24H1办公&管理软件9家代表性公司的归母净利润增速中位数为-6.06%,进一步迫 近正增长区间。分季度来看,24Q1办公&管理软件9家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润0.13亿元,同比转正,24Q2 合计实现归母净利 润1.66亿元,较2323 Q2Q2 大幅增长约14倍。一一办公&管理软244、件公司半年度归母净利润增速中位数 -办公&管理软件公司半年度归母净利润增速100%50%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22 2 23H1 23H2 24H1-50%-100%-150%-200%-250%-300%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一 一办公&管理软件公司季度归母净利润增速中位数办公&管理软件公司季度总归母净利润增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1 2 4Q21600%1400%1200%1000%800%600%400%200%0%-200%-400%图表:21H1-24H1 办公&管理软件公司半年度245、归母净利润增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 办公&管理软件公司单季度归母净利润增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所73季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 2323Q1Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24246、H24H1 1金山办公金山办公用友网络用友网络税友股份税友股份万兴科技万兴科技泛微网络泛微网络汉得信息汉得信息福昕软件福昕软件普联软件普联软件致远互联致远互联78.65%5%46.51%-10.09%37.90%46.40%-1.49%59.91%33 08.53%-2.31%13.4%11.59%68.36%83.49%3.92%48.78%89.07%4.87%25.75%13.6%b 0%8.831%85.29%93.27%20.19%489.46%24.27%31.64%6%17.998%3%6.41%86.59%73.7 4%48.05%23.35%29118.42%4%6.59%2247、.13%41.95%858.57%83.82%77.59%04.32%11.42%39 3%15.1%15.0 0%3 4%26 L.91%-1.5 3%23.948.14%1.91%2%48 0%49.94%1.0 6%7.92%100.43%68.91%25.96%57.44%30.62%4%9%29 3%02.29%62.9 0%51.67%6.71%6.58%0.92%5.12%6.6%96.0%90.91%27 2%58.776%45.66%23.46%0%15.6%49.94%31.77%01.90%34.28%1.87%0.43%0.18%34.70%21 3%68 8%51!5248、4%78.34%11.44%75.84%27.32%39.44%91.674%31.65%67.94%68.73%205.21%35.98%26.09%37.31%14.17%2.40%22.99%4 1%59.53%-6.47%17 4%23.75%6.74%23.9690.04%05.07%48.81%32.95902.49%7.24961.25953.54%740.02%4.62%.47.0979%2824.09%24.85%85.67%12.95%-5.43%48.84%35.50%-154.14%8.01%311.78%-100.479%61.31%23.59%5.30%218.93249、%16.12%75.26%-38.46%1156.21%56.11%69.53%24.77%21.39%-3.61%52.29%247.89%-21.28%76.14%8743.31%38.44%28.10%15.32%230.42%11.63%273.85%45.53%-92.30%332.60%-436.67%38.81%20.17%125.70%106.26%47.82%-8.07%242.05%96.35%-36.97%-216.41%20.3896.00.843.922.9 9%172.07%-231.73%-142.17%-433.78%归母净利润增速中位数归母净利润增速中位数总归250、母净利润增速总归母净利润增速37.90%-2.31%-3.82%24.27%36.34%-17.98%-19.51%-41.95%-51.76%15.00%-7.99%-48.10%54.94%6.71%2.60%0.92%-154.09%-31.77%-98.36%0.18%-47.24%31.65%-55.44%14.17%-110.89%-105.07%1404.82924.0955.3-5.-2238 4%-24 469 -214%-6.4381-367%54-6.05%-271.6 具体来看,具体来看,9 9家办公家办公&管理软件公司中,汉得信息在管理软件公司中,汉得信息在Q2Q2 251、实现归母净利润实现归母净利润0.330.33亿元,较去年同期的亿元,较去年同期的-0.01-0.01亿元大幅回正,亿元大幅回正,此外福昕软件、普联软件也在Q2 实现利润转正;万兴科技、致远互联则在24Q2 利润由正转负。总体来看,24H1办公&管理软件公司在利润端表现较好,24H1除致远互联转亏、万兴科技净利润下降外,其余7家公司均实现利润增长或利润扭亏为盈,从而带司均实现利润增长或利润扭亏为盈,从而带动整个行业在动整个行业在2424H1实现较好的盈利表现。实现较好的盈利表现。图表:2021年以来办公&管理软件公司归母净利润增速对比3.7.33.7.3办公办公&管理软件:管理软件:2424H1252、H1 利润回正,利润回正,Q2Q2 利润大幅增利润大幅增长长资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 74中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.8.13.8.1信创:信创:2424H1营收正增长,产业景气度较好营收正增长,产业景气度较好24H1 信创产业11家代表性公司实现营收275.47亿元,同比增长2.73%,增速重新回正;若以中位数法分析,24H1信创 产业11家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为10.53%,较23H1的-9.55%亦重新转正。24H1产业景气度较佳,产业景气度较佳,Q2 加速成长。加速成长。分季度来看,24 Q1信创产业11家代表性公司实现营收133.41亿元253、,同比增长-1.26%,24Q21.26%,24Q2 实现营收142.07亿元,同比增速上升至至6.78%6.78%,这与纳思达、中国长城、金山办公三家Q2 收入增速较好、拉动信创产业整体收入增速有关。以中位数法分析,2424 Q1Q1 信创产业11家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为21.13%,24Q2 这一增速中位数有明显回落,降至5.98%。一信创企业季度收入增速中位数一信创企业季度总收入增速120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4 23Q123 Q2 28Q323Q424Q124Q2信创企业半年度收入增速中位数 一254、信创企业半年度总收入增速80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-10%-20%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 75图表:21Q1-24Q2 信创企业单季度营收增速变化趋势图表:21H1-24H1信创企业半年度营收增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3255、 23Q423Q4 24Q1 24Q2 21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1纳思达纳思达中国软件中国软件中国长城中国长城达梦数据达梦数据诚迈科技诚迈科技东方通东方通星环科技星环科技-U-U 麒麟信安麒麟信安 中创股份中创股份 金山办公金山办公 太极股份太极股份7.31%69.18%78.2%12.50%489.14%07.74%14.76%8.65%103.67%44.96%32.63%0.24%45.67%29.77%2.08%08.32%32.61%56.85%56.91%37.43%92.10%65.83%15.32%15.27%38.24%7.24%19256、.79%-8.03%20.11%49.64%9.24%48.81%-47.30%12.26%18.65%27.96%29.48%12.26%55.94%08.22%16.63%44.68%30.53%12.07%-33.99939.01%48.24%34.75%41.81%24.35%-35.54%-11.43%31.94%23.38%-3.87%5.07%3.99%-4.67920.04%1.06%11.75%20.07%22.29%-1.89%52.43%76.38%21.43%21.11%-0.77%-10.54%36.93%-21.2490.29%-11.53%29.74%45.82%257、21.37%55.74%-15.49%-17.60%-1.58%-8.67%35.29%15.04%-87.31%9.40%-5.56%-11.09%-36.80%18.32%14.61%42.98%33.14%-52.40%17.99%12.27%-3.49%-42.32%21.13%26.79%0.82%102.01%46.00%29.81%59.56%16.54%-9.95%12.47%-2.67%21.30%18.76%-10.51%21.11%18.51%26.57%34.61%5.98%-29.77%0.19%88.7%82 96%26%47.8290%22.93%32.87%28258、.37%0.81%45.66%.72%27.49%23.21%24.11%.29%0.95%5257%3.38%18.20%33.17%4.47%33.61%5.24%21.92%28.07%4.52%9.92%10.77%13.48%22.07%16.75%0.03%29.82%21.70%15.10%-0.72%27.54%41.38%25.79%-9.55%21.25%34.97%13.26%30.52%10.26%15.64%2.49%30.33%28.29%69.43%30%13.87%5.55%4.01%21.73%21.23%22.41%5.35%10.53%1.58%28.15259、%45.33%11.09%18.34%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数总收入增速总收入增速107.74%32.63%56.85%15.32%18.65%29.48%24.35%-3.87%-0.77%-11.53%-5.56%12.27%21.13%-1.26%5.98%6.78%70.90%27.49%24.11%5.24%-9.55%-12.46%5.55%-6.44%10.53%2.73%多家公司营收较快增长多家公司营收较快增长,产业景气度佳。,产业景气度佳。2424H1H1内,信创产业多家公司实现营收的快速增长,如中国长城、达梦数内,信创产业多家公司实现营收的快速增长,如中国长城、达梦数据260、、麒麟信安、中创股份在24H1内营收增速均超过20%,信创产业发展基础仍在,景气度较佳。图表:2021年以来信创企业营收增速对比3.8.13.8.1信创:信创:2424H1营收正增长,产业景气度较好营收正增长,产业景气度较好资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 76中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.8.23.8.2信创:信创:2424H1毛利正增长毛利正增长,龙头企业牵引作用明显,龙头企业牵引作用明显 24H1,24H1,信创产业11家代表性公司总毛利为97.04亿元,同比增速为2.29%,增速同环比均转正;以中位数法分析,24H1 信创产业毛利增速中位数为9.60%,增261、速同比转正。分季度来看,24Q1信创产业11家代表性公司总毛利为46.35亿元,同比增速为-4.53%,24Q2 总毛利为50.69亿元,同 比增速回正至9.43%。不过若以中位数法分析,24Q1 信创产业11家代表性公司的毛利增速中位数为9.82%,24Q2 这一 数值则大幅降至-2.81%。140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%一信创企业季度毛利增速中位数 一信创企业季度总毛利增速21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1 230 223Q32304 24Q124Q2一信创企业半年度毛利增速中位数 一信创企业半年度毛利增速21H1 21H262、2 22H1 22H 23H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%图表:21Q1-24Q2 信创企业单季度毛利增速变化趋势图表:21H1-24H1 信创企业半年度毛利增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES77季度同比增速季度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224263、Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1纳思达纳思达中国软件中国软件中国长城中国长城达梦数据达梦数据诚迈科技诚迈科技东方通东方通星环科技星环科技-U-U麒麟信安麒麟信安中创股份中创股份金山办公金山办公太极股份太极股份16.94%8.39%107.62%22.66%202.63%36.57%450.46%12.52%566.02%26.45%21.64%43.65%21.87%15.26%-3.45%64.02%6.46021.25%61.18938.54%24.48%88.36%264、2.35%15.81%26.71%8.11%11.84%-4.08%29.15%35.23%-7.42%18.19%58.52%8.24%18.12%13.83%-7.43%5.12%33.84%37.90%13.20%2.30%19.02%0.67%19.25%25.66%-53.61%40.54%42.219.22%2.46%-15.69%-10.57%6.66%-27.29%-0.57%4.61%2.87%21.96%-11.14%7.83%-24.99%21.18%-24.27%-4777%94.92%31.04%21.52%10.33%-15.98%-9.72%17.92%11.48265、%1.25%36.04%23.67%-11.47%-17.94%1.49%16.619-4.90%26.56%34.27%85.99.15%18.08%-12.62%-26.53%-17.39919.22%42.86%36.12%-61.87%17.45%-8.93%-13.62%-5.35%-7.19%27.53%-0.94%12.42%96.13%9.82%49.97%13.82%-15.70%32.77%-3.65%-2.81%21.39%-13.63%-24.30%-19.79%27.46%19.95%5.57%-34.89%5.34%16.04%8010%88%193.19%61%1266、8.11%59.49%13.76%7.80%24.29%7.13%23.39%5.37%21.11%10.60%6.13%26.48%29.79%-5.26%50.70.70%9.35%1.57%-7.57%4.10%4.40%18.12%12.58%18.81%20.63%-5.83%-3.90%17.61%19.34%13.51%17.11%19.08%50.27%25.58%39.80%22.61%-0.97%15.23%18.39%17.12%20.03%5.52%29.85%35.61%73.46%44.88%13.47%2.56%6.37%4 45%4.67%24.21%8.53%267、12.30%16.53%18.54%32.30%9.60%24.59%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数总毛利增速总毛利增速121.64%26.45%24.48%2.35%18.12%13.20%19.02%-0.57%7.83%-11.47%1.49%-12.62%9.82%-4.53%-2.81%9.43%79.88%13.76%10.60%-4.10%-3.90%-2.97%2.56%-9.32%9.60%2.29%具体来看,由于纳思达毛利体量与中国软件、中国长城、金山办公差距较大,而中国软件、具体来看,由于纳思达毛利体量与中国软件、中国长城、金山办公差距较大,而中国软件、中国长城、金山办公与268、中国长城、金山办公与其 他信创企业的毛利体量差距也比较大,因此行业整体毛利增他信创企业的毛利体量差距也比较大,因此行业整体毛利增速主要由这四家的趋势来决定,龙头牵引作用明显,而速主要由这四家的趋势来决定,龙头牵引作用明显,而这 也导致了也导致了20242024年年Q1、Q2 信创企业毛利增速中位数与总体毛利增速的反向关系信创企业毛利增速中位数与总体毛利增速的反向关系。图表:2021年以来信创企业毛利增速对比3.8.23.8.2信创:信创:2424H1毛利毛利正增长,龙头企业牵引作用明显正增长,龙头企业牵引作用明显资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 78中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECU269、RITIES3.8.23.8.2信创:信创:2424H1毛利率略有下降毛利率略有下降整体而言,信创行业在24H1毛利率有所下降,11家公司的总体毛利率从23H1 的35.38%略降至24H1 的35.23%。分季度来看。信创产业24Q124Q1毛利率有所下降,从23Q1的35.93%小幅下降至24Q1的34.75%;Q2 行业毛利率则小幅提 升,从23Q2 的34.82%升至24Q2 的35.68%。图表:22H1-24H1信创企业半年度毛利率变化趋势 图表:22Q1-24Q2 信创企业单季度毛利率变化趋势一 一信创企业季度总毛利率22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 2270、4Q2一 一信创企业半年度总毛利率22H2 23H1 23H240%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%24H140%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%22H1资 料 来 源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 79中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES22Q1 22Q2 22Q3季季 度度 同同 比比 变变 动动21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q1271、24Q1 24Q224Q2半半 年年 度度 同同 比比 变变 动动21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1纳纳 思思 达达中国软件中国软件中国长城中国长城达梦数据达梦数据诚迈科技诚迈科技东东 方方 通通星环科技星环科技-U U 麒麒 麟麟 信信 安安 中创股份中创股份金山办公金山办公太极股份太极股份90%7.68%165%14 60%0%501|41%0i08%3.05%2%28%921%81%8498%1409%53%52%24%00%95%-0154 1%28%92%89%3%7%1%93%21%20%0|272、92%0.11%03194%21%62%39%26%53%53%04%21%50%2 05%8 98%2 3%0|43%66%0%59%8.03%0%5 14%67%0.35%5.07%34%69%27%31%0|30%31%6.63%491%590%0 29%270%93%11:05%0|90%41%88237%-3754159%15 75%91%657%77%80%00%10.28%6.99%020%6.00%54%6%43%0 54%3%32%77%38%70%66%22 5694%0!57%0125%32%1710%45%02%1%38%37%45%1%53%34%30%52%55%3273、3%29%2.02%4.80%0.32%47%1.87%0.94062%3.46%2.00%3.65%7.27%2.85%3.1840.84%7.39%.09%4.08%3.97%1.94%6.46%2.90%4.2042.18%95%14%50%6.69%96%6%301%46%.33%533%0.64%.3 4%3.27%45%3 3%0.21%3.45%0.96%89%0.72%5.57%7.10%3.50%0.52%0.46%3.40%9.0 0%4.03%-0.30%0.6090.74%94%67%1%0.55%4%54%82%8.50%1.5%2.20%毛利率变动中位数毛利率变动中274、位数总毛利率变动总毛利率变动7.68%0.60%0.08%0.82%4.95%4.91%1.92%3.49%4.00%0.74%3.943.01%2.05%311%0.35%3.59%0.304%52%0.90%5.93%0.80%0.95%0.13%2.98%0.25%1.19%0.63%0.86%.42%3.46%084%4.08p.98%96%20%0.64%3.46%.46%.04%.74%15中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所3.8.23.8.2信创:信创:2424H1毛利率略有下降毛利率略有下降图表:2021年以来信创企业毛利275、率变动对比806一 信创企业半年度归母净利润增速中位数 一信创企业半年度归母净利润增速200%100%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-100%-200%-300%-400%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所3.8.33.8.3信创:信创:2424H1H1 利润扭亏为盈利润扭亏为盈信创产业在信创产业在2424H1H1整体大幅减亏整体大幅减亏,给出了较好的利润端表现。,给出了较好的利润端表现。2424H1H1 信创产业信创产业1111家代表性公司合家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润5.20 亿元,相较23H1的-5.60亿元,24H1信创企业实现了扭亏为盈。分276、季度来看,2424 Q1Q1 信创产业11家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润1.44亿元,24Q2 合计实现归母净利润3.76亿元,两 个季度同比均实现利润转正。信创企业季度归母净利润增速中位数 一信创企业季度总归母净利润增速100%50%0%21Q1240221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223d323Q424Q24Q2-50%-100%-150%-200%-250%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所图表:21Q1-24Q2 信创企业单季度归母净利润增速变化趋势图表:21H1-24H1 信创企业半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECUR277、ITIES81季度同比增速季度同比增速半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q23Q4 4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q221H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1纳思达纳思达61 5%9%34 1%4%1048%1969%95 3%3%0%7%28 5%-21550%31 3%399 0%1B 7%1%150.3%3.278、1%920 2%/7 4%中国软件中国软件5%8.0%2%8%9%0.4%10.7%18.0%939%7%87.3%.6%3%8%9%.7%1%4%0%4%1%中国长城中国长城7%3%2%6%18p.1%17.2%161.1%2%5%2%18 2%5%6 6%258.4%6%5%4%达梦数据达梦数据659%19.5%0%8.2%40 7%诚迈科技诚迈科技9%036%3%3414%3534%1%4%139%7%9%1%0%4%71 0%5%东方通东方通1602%126 3%10 2%289.5%129%2 0%7%8879%990%2%319%l 7%6.%-63.0%1%54%1065 7%5279、 6%星环科技星环科技-U-U3.6%0%4%339%3%4%8%5%5%0%7%7.0%9%麒麟信安麒麟信安451%2%1 5%-135.1%4%449.7%0%31 7%4%5%14 3%7%中创股份中创股份1186.9%2%52 1%75 1%金山办公金山办公178.7%3%25 7%6%4%4%9%574%6%255%0.2%394%373%6.7%56 5%4%3%4%3%20 2%20.4%太极股份太极股份40.7%5.7%3.3%2%1%113 3%39 3%9.3%5%28.7%0.8%5%5%85 0%279%-p.5%3p6%2%37 8%-4.8%412.9%归母净利润增280、速中位数归母净利润增速中位数-2.5%-18o%3.3%-316%18.4%11.4%10.7 -18.0%41 28.0.2%93 3.8%44.0%-11.9%-9.1%150 1.2%29 0%-1 4%0.9%总归母净利润增速总归母净利润增速-170.6%-205.6%170 0%307 7%1928%具体来看,规模体量较大的纳思达、中国软件、中具体来看,规模体量较大的纳思达、中国软件、中国长城、金山办公四家公司,在国长城、金山办公四家公司,在2424H1 1的两个季度里均实现了利润增的两个季度里均实现了利润增 长或减亏,从而带动板块整体利润表现向好。除此之外,其余长或减亏,从而带动板281、块整体利润表现向好。除此之外,其余7 7家公司也分别各有一或家公司也分别各有一或两个季度实现利润增长或减亏。两个季度实现利润增长或减亏。总体来看,由于总体来看,由于20232023年上下半年均存在利润端低基数效应,年上下半年均存在利润端低基数效应,2424H1 1信创产业的利润端表现边际向好,且未来这信创产业的利润端表现边际向好,且未来这一趋势有一趋势有望得以延续。图表:2021年以来信创企业归母净利润增速对比资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 823.8.3 信创:信创:2 24 4H1 1利润扭亏为盈利润扭亏为盈中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES3.9.13.9.1网络282、安全:营收端持续承压,龙网络安全:营收端持续承压,龙头公司营收下降头公司营收下降24H1 网络安全产业20家代表性公司实现营收129.66亿元,同比下降7.80%,增速延续23H2 的负增长态势;若以中位 数法分析,24H1 信网络安全产业20家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为3.89%,虽较23H1的12.12%有所下降,不过环 比23H2则重新转正。分季度来看,2424 Q1Q1 网络安全产业20家代表性公司实现营收54.71亿元,同比增长-7.94%,24Q2 实现营收74.95亿元,同比增速为-7.69%,连续两个季度增速为负。以中位数法分析,24Q1网络安全产业20家代表性公司的营收增速283、中位数 为8.42%,24Q2 这一增速中位数有明显回落,降至3.60%。一网络安全公司半年度收入增速中位数 一网络安全公司半年度总收入增速50%40%30%20%10%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-10%-20%一网络安全公司季度收入增速中位数 一网络安全公司季度总收入增速60%50%40%30%20%10%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2-10%-20%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 83图表:21H1-24H1网络安全公司284、半年度营收增速变化趋势图表:21Q1-24Q2 网络安全公司单季度营收增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES21Q121Q1 210210 21032103 21042104 22Q122Q1 22022202季度同比增速季度同比增速220220 2204220423Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2 21H121H1 21H221H2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H123H223H2 24H124H1深信服深信服启明星辰启明星辰奇安信奇安信-U-U电科285、网安电科网安国投智能国投智能迪普科技迪普科技数字认证数字认证天融信天融信北信源北信源绿盟科技绿盟科技亚信安全亚信安全吉大正元吉大正元安恒信息安恒信息三未信安三未信安格尔软件格尔软件永信至诚永信至诚安博通安博通信安世纪信安世纪盛邦安全盛邦安全山石网科山石网科79.37%120.18%102.07%379.00%19.11%40.34%23.37%64.34%22.51%47.04%92.54%57.84%45.77%86.21%30.52%63.52%31.58%34.54%27.92%49.91%35.35%34.13%69.75%-73.04%63.96%37.54%29.01%36.51%286、68.91%70.87%29.87%21.38%19.32%28.58%41.26%26.69%-3.34%30.16%0.30%-50.83%7.01%17.08%69.89%38.51%18.72%72.76%29.55%30.25%59.58%9.70%3.86%36.81%-10.76%1.09%14.57%15.30%1.38%16.75%29.03%62.05%28.45%44.05%20.17%44.68%22.26%37.01%4.76%11.58%44.52%123.07%16.77%10.32%29.77%42.80%52.69%34.64%9.85%14.41%26.90287、%87.55%20.05%31.53%52.97%11.85%-7.98%30.96%21.18%-28.78%-35.48%-3.73%13.91%60.36%-4.05%35.85%28.76%8.42%52.86%26.49%1.47%19.74%7.96%7.78%0.39%8.06%7.72%22.87%18.50%-14.84%6.22%20.23%11.59%42.66%25.05%27.31%53.18%35.45%27.21%34.78%6.88%9.74%-0.88%-3.30%10.09%-9.12%-0.54%1.81%6.04%-32.56%-9.87%0.54%52288、.42%-1.50%25.59%-40.05%3.77%7.54%30.12%-76.92%6.02%39.56%40.32%-34.50%53.92%8.14%16.12%23.81%17.59%0.77%-17.05%64.95%43.99%32.71%-49.99%9.93%1.68%19.29%41.70%-0.10%3.00%12.96%19.01%7.45%-16.35%36.78%20.11%6.88%65.09%-24.59%6.12%0.02%19.34%0.83%-40.61%25.75%4.40%18.45%41.27%4.65%3.02%6.05%-1.63%22.79289、%29.03%16.58%15.77%10.32%32.54%10.60%-1.65%20.49%1.35%70.30%-0.72%60.19%21.37%17.15%15.78%-0.66%7.08%13.01%-9.07%-2.01%4.89%9.46%27.91%29.01%162.94%-61.80%10.97%57.73%2.38%27.05%18.64%8.98%31.99%40.44%16.21%105.16%14.66%17.13%-23.82%68.94%31.78%10.16%8.36%-9.93%15.05%8.48%22.05%3.68%16.47%36.35%-29.290、24%10.66%8.99%36.67%18.98%4.49%2.84%11.30%-30.76%-29.85%15.16%17.42%6.75%-15.82%38.13%15.75%13.89%35.38%15.96%78.06%53.46%22.07%41.45%-8.85%-8.12%0.45%48.26%60.61%44.54%94.75%2925%36.84%49.25%70.32%2799%40.39%5.01%40.48%44.28%10.08%58.52%20.30%76.37%30.08%41.43%32.32%2.8497.37%6.93%9.32%3.98%2.69%24291、.07%20.39%16.49%46.02%7.37%7.33%2.023.81%9.60%19.56%28.40%23.83%16.12%23.59%7.72%3.42%28.17%43.97%20.54%13.63%7.44%13.07%27.05%12.39%17.31%17.20%0.29%63.48%18.65%18.48%30.01%4.37%2.22%2.02%收入增速中位数收入增速中位数 总收入增速总收入增速52.44%34.94%28.58%20.17%29.77%8.42%7.96%-0.54%9.04%6.56%7.16%6.51%-0.69%-2.94%0.19%10.292、18%8.42%-7.94%3.60%-7.69%42.38%19.00%10.99%0.63%12.12%6.53%-0.98%-7.75%3.89%7.80%具体来看,具体来看,2424H1网络安全公司营收有所分化,其中营网络安全公司营收有所分化,其中营收体量较大的奇安信、电科网安、深信服、天融信在收体量较大的奇安信、电科网安、深信服、天融信在2424H1出出现 一定程度的营收下降,一定程度的营收下降,拖累板块整体营收下滑。同时,如三未信安、安博通等特定赛道网络安全公司,则在拖累板块整体营收下滑。同时,如三未信安、安博通等特定赛道网络安全公司,则在2424H1迎来迎来 业绩较大增长,其中三293、未信安因收购江南科友,业绩较大增长,其中三未信安因收购江南科友,2424H1营收大幅增长营收大幅增长63.48%,63.48%,安博安博通则在通则在2424H1营收增长营收增长30.01%30.01%。图表:2021年以来网络安全公司营收增速对比3.9.1 网络安全:营收端网络安全:营收端持续承压,龙头公司营收下降持续承压,龙头公司营收下降资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 848.86%0.18%35.21%55.33%13.00%14.98%8.51%24.77%31.89%8.11%21.98%18.08%15.78%24.53%67.19%-13.63%24.06%10.99%8.98294、%1.53%2.27%9.37%8.76%12.09%6.56%0.63%7.17%2.33%4.52%0.05%6.39%26.13%16.25%9.04%13.47%3143%13.59%9.75%38.03%-0.27%1.68%3.90%10.59%20.48%B0.62%25.81%533%26.15%12.74%-33.82%20.15%18.36%14.16%38.27%14.66%中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES30.76%3546%39.75%24.41%22.45%3010%2.17%4.28%41.66%45.68%30.40%4.95%2.94%3295、029%.22%L43.9.2 网络安全:毛利增速承压,网络安全:毛利增速承压,Q2 毛利表现有所修复毛利表现有所修复 24H1,24H1,网络安全产业20家代表性公司总毛利为75.04亿元,同比增速为-8.73%,增速延续23H2的下滑趋势;以中位数 法分析,24H1网络安全产业毛利增速中位数为7.17%,同比略有下降但环比转正。分季度来看,24Q1网络安全产业20家代表性公司总毛利为31.19亿元,同比增速为-10.03%,24Q2 总毛利为43.84亿元,同比增速略收窄至-7.78%。若以中位数法分析,24Q1 网络安全产业20家代表性公司的毛利增速中位数为1.00%,24Q2 这一数值296、继续升至11.58%。图表:21H1-24H1网络安全公司半年度毛利增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2 网络安全公司单季度毛利增速变化趋势一网络安全公司季度毛利增速中位数 一网络安全公司季度总毛利增速60%50%40%30%20%10%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223 Q3-2304 24Q124Q2-10%-20%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一网络安全公司半年度毛利增速中位数 -网络安全公司半年度毛利增速40%30%20%10%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23M2 24H1-10%-20%资料来源:W297、ind,中泰证券研究所中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES85季度同比增速季度同比增速21012101 21Q221Q2 21Q321Q3 21042104 22012201 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23012301 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 2 23Q43Q4 24012401 24Q224Q2半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21H121H1 21H221H2 22H122H1 22H22H 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1深信服深信服启明星辰启明星辰奇安信奇安信-U-U电科网安电科网安国投智能国投智能迪普科技迪普科技298、数字认证数字认证天融信天融信北信源北信源绿盟科技绿盟科技亚信安全亚信安全吉大正元吉大正元安恒信息安恒信息三未信安三未信安格尔软件格尔软件永信至诚永信至诚安博通安博通信安世纪信安世纪盛邦安全盛邦安全山石网科山石网科79.86%90.99%126.43%529.25%82.55%40.76%5.27%63.98%19.65%28.13%30.20%32.09%117.86%40.85%30.09%55.21%25.99%14.02%30.26%61.54%30.25%38.36%41.85%5.62%65.27%29.35%32.17%20.34%82.10%69.26%30.18%27.79%8299、.42%22.98%60.52%23.00%7.80%31.86%7.71%31.32%18.42%21.89%50.31%27.37%4.11%41.01%36.27%29.98%84.93%1.23%19.50%29.67%-2.91%8.09%-14.41%11.86%-26.98%-93.43%1.66%65.62%29.99%40.08%0.53%36.79%26.95%40.75%7.22%25.86%34.23%83.26%0.79%4.32%32.14%61.11%44.15%29.33%-7.14%47.32%25.86%-21.80%13.50%30.81%65.51%4.300、91%-0.32%16.75%3.82%39.04%-40.53%3.37%1.34%71.98%18.05%24.73%-23.20%0.68%31.21%12.92%5.98%24.22%9.07%-5.16%9.79%13.07%40.47%-28.17%16.40%44.03%-1.54%7.56%-15.73%30.67%32.89%36.61%20.03%48.31%26.71%40.49%9.46%10.96%10.33%13.18%16.52%8.34%-2.45%7.20%28.69%285.04%3.83%10.83%-44.76%0.54%24.70%46.16%5.04301、%4.02%24.39%91.93%11.87%4.06%36.67%-1.08%53.45%11.33%37.51%17.52%16.38%0.49%2.65%66.10%58.15%30.70%-25.14%3.03%3.68%-18.32%50.08%9.24%8.14%20.09%33.18%36.67%25.00%40.32%-1.94%3.21%103.43%47.11%12.16%-28.05%12.97%-5.67%40.57%15.27%31.29%6.37%32.09%-27.79%0.54%16.40%12.16%6.69%13.14%16.78%31.02%54.17%302、0.27%12.44%6.12%33.22%3.58%61.86%-5.81%50.45%21.43%17.04%9.49%-22.63%4.93%-26.31%-3.82%-2.32%-17.41%11.44%49.43%30.03%918.18%85.52%36.97%67.21%1.50%-27.42%57.04%0.31%50.52%42.94%12.52%600.34%-20.06%16.51%-18.35%-69.01%-2.68%9.71%-20.54%16.20%-10.26%4.96%-0.22%-33.84%-26.10%53.19%-45.38%2.23%26.64%37303、.92%26.86%11.42%7.01%-18.30%40.61%40.60%15.84%22.14%11.51%11.09%53.49%66.86%28.23%6.82%31.92%89.39%50.68%11.65%31.99%6.58%-3.89%35.06%31.72%29.34%24.42%28.54%98.73%9.38%57.78%36.62%30.15%27.75%34.22%56.81%0.18%10.59%22.27%7.85%24.37%20.01%4.24%18.56%40.01%3.43%7.22%7.38%9.97%30.20%4.18%1.00%13.13%3.304、94%35.42%0.18%8.92%12.18%15.35%7.23%h6.16%0.44%2.16%5.50%4.93%0.13%1.31%8.94%28.35%27.50%1.68%5.97%28.72%48.46%9.59%12.49%t34.39%16.99%38.96%23.02%5.31%-5.77%4585%27.85%7.63%5.55%32.04%4.18%34.66%11.07%21.30%2.72%38.05%15.52%3.13%14.17%6.22%3.78%h6.56%13.88%43.27%13.20%32.04%63.53%26.23%57.39%2.16%1305、.68%27.71%10.52%39.22%25.34%11.94%33.10%12.21%3.03%32.76%53.12%8.91%5.43%5.20%0.75%30.67%1.59%5.32%6.01%2.58%77.09%8.55%8.65%30.33%7.16%7.18%24.94%毛利增速中位数毛利增速中位数 总毛利增速总毛利增速48.03%30.25%27.37%1.86%29.33%0.68%9.46%3.83%6.65%10.15%8.43%8.55%-1.93%-3.07%1.00%1.58%0.86%14.89%10.03%-7.78%35.63%10.01%9.97%4306、.93%0.33%-2.97%7.17%8.50%9.72%8.73%3.9.23.9.2网络安全:网络安全:2424H1H1 毛利正增长,龙头企毛利正增长,龙头企业牵引作用明显业牵引作用明显44.11%4.09%37.04%20.43%50.44%37.42%121.37%4.58%45.61%4.18%-39.45%5.30%2538%10.64%19.13%12.86%28.03%36.28%28.97%6.87%图表:2021年以来网络安全公司毛利增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所863.9.23.9.2网络安全:网络安全:307、2 24 4H1H1 整体毛利率略有下滑整体毛利率略有下滑整体而言,网络安全产业在整体而言,网络安全产业在2424H1H1 毛利率基毛利率基略有下滑,略有下滑,2020家公司的总体毛利率从家公司的总体毛利率从2323H1H1的的58.46%58.46%略降至略降至2424H1H1的的57.87%57.87%。分季度来看。分季度来看。2424Q1Q1网络安全产业毛利率从网络安全产业毛利率从2323Q1Q1的的58.34%58.34%小幅下降至小幅下降至57.02%;57.02%;Q2Q2 行业毛利行业毛利率则小幅提升,从率则小幅提升,从2323Q2Q2的58.55%升至24Q2 的58.49%。308、图表:22H1-24H1 网络安全公司半年度毛利率变化趋势 图表:22Q1-24Q2 网络安全公司单季度毛利率变化趋势一 一网络安全公司半年度总毛利率70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所一 一网络安全公司季度总毛利率70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所23Q4 24Q1 24Q287中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比变动季度同比变动21Q121Q1 21Q221Q2309、 21Q321Q3 21Q421Q4 22Q122Q1 22Q222Q2 22Q322Q3 22Q422Q4 23Q123Q1 23Q223Q2 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年度同比变动半年度同比变动21H121H1 21H221H2 2222H1H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1深信服深信服0.18%2.98%6.34%5.51%7.60%4.17%0.65%0.74%3.25%3.15%2.34%.33%3.93%2.84%1.93%5.90%5.55%0.71%3.16%0.19%3.13%启明星辰启明310、星辰9.28%10.96%3.03%896%779 5.07%7.98%6.53%7.43%4.16%5.71%89.47%-0.27%5.53%L10.46%6.03%6.32%6.99%-6.88%4.48%3.76%奇安信奇安信-U-U6.86%1.13%7.41%3.18%4.54%L6.84%5.78%9.85%1.54%6.69%7.23%3.91%4.14%8.95%2.48%-0.26%6.05%8.71%3.74%0.52%3.90%电科网安电科网安国投智能国投智能10.08%22.26%2.68%2.28%1.08%6.36%3.11%4.28%7.54%8.76%7.69311、%L8.39%1.66%21.85%2.24%0.48%770%0.56%8.04%5.15%7.82%8.89%-0.13%2.03%0.12%4.60%45.76%0.26%4.68%6.77%1.74%-1.50%6.89%-7.88%2.05%-5.34%10.92%4.07%2.42%6.83%-7.01%-4.66%迪普科技迪普科技0.22%2.10%0.97%0.13%43.90%5.38%5.13%.34%1.99%1.64%0.12%1.24%0.29%2.61%1.31%0.96%4.14%-3.36%1.58%0.73%1.07%数字认证数字认证E9.65%h0.46%3312、.97%1.76%1.02%3.92%1.02%5.06%0.53%h 0.48%60.26%5.56%8.05%2.08%10.32%0.02%2.87%-3.77%1.48%13.54%6.55%天融信天融信46.92%57.46%49.74%18.77%7.69%10.33%27.26%0.33%2.58%2.29%20.77%-0.84%3.07%3.62%53.08%4.93%3.52%0.85%11.72%5.18%7.86%北信源北信源绿盟科技绿盟科技2.82%E9.73%0.56%4.29%B9.54%2.73%7.97%14.96%4.43%2.60%20.58%9.88%4313、.98%7.28%5.33%8.45%-0.77%0.79%1.53%7.28%30.23%5-1.27%3.37%39.75%4.18%2.03%5.20%791%0.02%-5.94%18.43%10.45%8.64%-7.17%6.24%4.38%3.50%-9.27%29.26%20.56%-3.35%8.66%亚信安全亚信安全E6.73%1.13%8.93%44.43%2.42%5.39%1.58%2.83%2.24%6.95%1.02%6.61%-6.78%2.40%6.55%11.12%-0.95%吉大正元吉大正元-25.00%1.42%45.16%0.70%15.02%4.63314、%2.33%9.43%0.47%7.95%1.41%5.25%-24.50%30.05%-3.83%-0.64%7.52%10.25%8.98%13.16%0.80%安恒信息安恒信息三未信安三未信安格尔软件格尔软件-b0.09%24.58%87.88%3.64%E8.18%-02.00%1.99%-0.43%89.09%43.31%44.19%87.12%3.66%5.30%-1.54%1.46%0.54%4.74%5.05%.06%5.39%2.91%44.96%0.03%3.01%3.86%-2.14%2.72%-0.37%3.54%6.51%8.51%0.57%7.10%4.58%0.7315、8%L-8.92%12.18%0L-3.59%-9.23%2.81%3.26%22.68%1.60%1.30%6.49%0.79%4.01%7.01%2.80%1.55%6.91%1.23%5.91%3.79%永信至诚永信至诚4.97%0.71%4.07%5.43%3.49%4.64%4.63%45.11%8.30%1.38%4.99%4.40%4.98%安博通安博通17.52%0.56%3.29%3.45%2.97%6.30%-0.26%6.44%2.80%3.51%0.04%7.51%8.78%4.41%4-6.73%-1.42%5.03%-4.10%9.75%4.88%0.15%信安世纪316、信安世纪盛邦安全盛邦安全山石网科山石网科-0.25%3.05%0.17%3.63%-0.14%10.56%2.71%1.98%-0.40%4.68%3.19%2.71%2.92%1.86%3.23%48.47%0.87%3.83%5.77%7.66%5.23%18.23%-0.07%44.03%17.44%2.93%2.55%62.91%0.67%4.54%4.48%1.68%3.46%19.59%0.04%0.95%1.89%5.36%1.92%2.60%-1.49%-8.81%4.98%1.78%-9.08%-1.40%2.84%5.14%1.85%3.53%13.70%毛利率变动中位数毛317、利率变动中位数-0.03%0.36%-0.14%-1.99%-2.97%5.38%-0.26%0.71%1.43%1.01%L2.60%1.10%1.71%2.32%1.94%-3.22%-0.28%-133%1.88%-0.05%0.03%-0.45%4.14%0.85%1.63%1.48%-0.40%1.06%1.30%-0.59%总毛利率变动总毛利率变动3.9.23.9.2网络安全网络安全:24 4H1 1整体毛利率整体毛利率略有下滑略有下滑图表:2021年以来网络安全公司毛利率变动对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所883.9.3318、3.9.3网络安全:网络安全:2424H1亏损略扩大亏损略扩大24H124H1 网络安全产业亏损略有扩大。网络安全产业亏损略有扩大。2424H1H1网络安全网络安全产业20家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润-31.88亿元,相较23 H1 的-30.86亿元,24H1网络安全产业亏损略有扩大。分季度来看,24Q1 网络安全产业20家代表性公司合计实现归母净利润-21.29亿元,亏损同比扩大8.21%,24Q2 合计实 现归母净利润-10.60亿元,亏损同比扩大3.30%。图表:21H1-24H1 网络安全公司半年度归母净利润增速变化趋势 图表:21Q1-24Q2网络安全公司单季度归母净利润增速变化319、趋势一网络安全公司季度归母净利润增速中位数 一网络安全公司季度总归母净利润增速60%40%20%0%210 21Q221Q321Q422Q 22Q222Q322Q4 23Q123Q2 23Q3 23Q4 p4Q 24Q2-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%网络安全公司半年度归母净利润增速中位数-网络安全公司半年度归母净利润增速20%10%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%资 料 来 源:Wind,中 泰 证 券 研 究 所中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,320、中泰证券研究所8921Q121Q1 21Q221Q2 21032103 21042104 22012201 22Q222Q2季度同季度同 22Q322Q3比增速比增速22042204 23Q123Q1 23042304 23Q323Q3 23Q423Q4 24Q124Q1 24Q224Q2半年半年21H121H1 21H221H2 2 22H12H1度同比增速度同比增速22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 2 24H14H1深信服深信服启明星辰启明星辰奇安信奇安信-U-U电科网安电科网安国投智能国投智能迪普科技迪普科技数字认证数字认证天融信天融信北信源北信源绿盟科技绿盟科技亚信321、安全亚信安全吉大正元吉大正元安安 恒信息恒信息三未信安三未信安格尔软件格尔软件永信至诚永信至诚安博通安博通信安世纪信安世纪盛邦安全盛邦安全山石网科山石网科50.4%-4.9%1.3%-43.9%-29.3%17.4%-44.8%-39.4%-613.0%-25.4%33.2%188.2%-11.9%-310.4%-96.5%20.3%154.2%155.0%159.6%908.2%-18.0%28.1%-252.2%73.4%121.0%80.3%16.6%203.0%-87.1%42.6%139.3%233.2%99.8%2.2%-25.4%33.3%-61.5%42.7%44.2%-193322、.9%-156.4%-268.1%68.1%14.1%-457.7%76.4%265.1%6.9%508.3%-45.2%19.2%-10.5%-10.4%-9.1%-13.7%10.4%53.9%892.1%21.3%71.6%46.2%68.1%12.9%7.99 25.4%10.2%438.9%29.3%-10.4%-49.5%83.6%2.4%148.7%32.1%-109.9%154.0%6823.7%12.4%50.8%134.09690.1%506.3%14.7%365.9%378.0%11.3%41.5%-239.1%107.4%65.9%62.6%-183.3%-287.3%323、1107.4%-113.0%273.5%-882.4%312.6%-9.2%61.0%1694.1%99.6%8.3%22.9%474.3%-72.7%2.0%-341.6%327.1%0.7%-94.2%468.3%-8.7%24.2%223.3%-68.5%96.2%44.1%50.1%119.8%0.1%96.3%12.5%28.1%22.0%-16.7%93.2%56.9%-24.7%166.7%-73.4%-27.8%34.2%-59.1%-11.9%40.4%4.7%249.4%20.4%-32.6%11.0%3.9%189.7%-28.1%51.2%41.0%12.5%57.8%324、21.3%-114.4%-0.4%58.9%-25.5%-4.1%106.3%1981.2%6.0%22.0%-17.6%264.4%19.2%8.3%101.4%254.7%98.6%14.2%103.0%132.2%-17.2%611.5%20.8%40.8%-217.8%21845.0%230.7%82.2%-133.5%368.0%-211.0%14785.3%59.2%52.7%25.6%2.0%-266.3%83.1%-103.2%184.5%-1066.2%31.7%48.6%90.9%631.6%22.6%1003.7%46.6%178.2%258.0%16.6%42.9%9.325、5%6.1%46.1%-27.0%134.7%-119.7%102.4%-260.4%-130.1%339.6%13.6%-64.4%77.4%15.4%250.5%-78.6%5.9%53.6%18.6%72.2%10.0%423.7%79.6%12.4%-880.3%-2.1%36.9%17.3%53.8%-645.5%5.8%163.4%23.6%21.2%24.5%-8.6%42.8%13.8%27.1%-127.6%1.9%-141.7%-15.6%127.2%180.2%3.6%4831.4%-55.2%-39.6%-57.7%-65.7%70.0%-111.7%-114.5%-2326、1.9%-177.5%1232.3%81.5%5.8%401.9%33.2%68.3%116.0%23.1%-131.0%-12.2%6.5%-127.3%4.3%192.2%-28.7%459.1%484.3%63.9%56.6%17.4%2.6%4.7%18.4%-6.9%-3.8%32.2%9155.7%1.2%42.8%-2.8%13.7%48.1%22.0%44.5%418.6%132.9%1.3%123.5%1 494.6%61.1%20.2%13.0%238.5%2661.1%2222.8%231.8%12.7%215.9%93.1%15.3%480.2%-13.7%-21.2%327、117.8%9.6%163.2%5.9%13.9%46.7%13.8%0.3%69.9%-27.4%57.7%106.2%37.4%32.4%-62.4%0.9%61.9%11.1%160.9%19.7%173.9%3.3%55.9%146.6%4.0%78.6%3.2%107.9%92.5%0.4%24.9%10.0%29.1%5.8%55.6%145.0%209.9%35.6%45.9%15.0%36.5%-1.5%12.3%72.2%19.8%-158.2%-138.8%-102.1%-330.5%-144.5%1481.9%-58.6%38.5%123.0%14.9%279.3%-71328、.9%12.8%20.8%6.9%198.6%-6.8%496.55%54.1%32.1%430.1%3.0%1927.3%-38.6%12.1%-3.0%-32.6%35.20 -0.9%31.1%23.4%20.4%196.5%-28.8%归母净利润增速中位数归母净利润增速中位数 总归母净利润增速总归母净利润增速E27.3%35.4%2.2%10.4%124%65.9%72.7%-1h.9%-2.1%9.5%-15.7%-2D.4%13.8%47.9%44.5%46.8%9.1%8.2%61.7%3.3%14.8%0.0%4.760.0%-15.3%0.0%-13.8%0.0%4.5%+2329、8.1%-3.D%56.6%-15.%6.5%3.9.33.9.3网络安全网络安全:24H1H1 亏损略扩大亏损略扩大图表:2021年以来网络安全公司归母净利润增速对比中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所903.10.13.10.1算力:行业高景气,营收快速增长算力:行业高景气,营收快速增长算力行业持续高景气,板块营收快速增长。24H1算力产业8家代表性公司实现营收1501.61亿元,同比增长21.99%;若以中位数法分析,2424 H1H1 算力产业8家代表性公司的营收增速中位数为19.71%,同样呈现快速增长态势。季度收入增长逐季季度收入330、增长逐季提速。提速。分季度来看,2424 Q1Q1 算力产业8家代表性公司实现营收671.20亿元,同比增长20.06%,24Q2 实现营收830.41亿元,同比增速为23.60%,23.60%,板块总营收增长逐季提速。以中位数法分析,24Q1 算力产业8家代表性公 司的营收增速中位数为13.75%,24 Q2这一增速中位数则大幅提升至25.30%,同样反映了算力行业当前持续高景气的 现状。一算力产业公司半年度收入增速中位数 算力产业公司半年度总收入增速25%20%15%10%5%0%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24H1-5%-10%一算力产业公司季度收入增速中331、位数 一算力产业公司季度总收入增速40%30%20%10%0%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q12 2Q2 22Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q2-10%-20%资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 资料来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 91图表:21Q1-24Q2 算力产业公司单季度营收增速变化趋势图表:21H1-24H1 算力产业公司半年度营收增速变化趋势中泰证券中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES季度同比增速季度同比增速 半年度同比增速半年度同比增速21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 2332、3Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 21H1 21H2 22H122H1 22H222H2 23H123H1 23H223H2 24H124H1紫光股份紫光股份中科曙光中科曙光浪潮信息浪潮信息神州数码神州数码云天励飞云天励飞-U-U恒为科技恒为科技淳中科技淳中科技首都在线首都在线35.53%-3.44%3.82%3.69%17.89%70.51%26.85%10.65%29.98%11.34%.26%89.02%8.05%14.35%6.72%1.31%16.27%27.07%18.11%19.73%29.10%9.10%11.99%18.62%28.20%20.91%17.06%14.85333、%13.58%9.75%48.11%19.07%27.38%22.45%6.32%10.54%13.18%4.04%11.03%54.91%13.42%4.30%15.49%18.53%1.27%8.48%29.41%19.26%-5.53%0.77%19.40%19.43%13.73481%20.26%4.81%7.74%5.645.59%-5.18%8.42%9.41%8.23%11.78%2.39%8.98%12.38%-2.03%31.99%56.64%40.50%3.46%-1.63%-0.27%30.04%6.44%13.52%16.01%18.92%-2.56%9.55%17.31%6.04%13.03%-3.81%11.26%46.97%6.77%2.89%7.86%.30%7.95%57%5699%3.74%19.56%7.32%4.21%58.84%16.87%08.7

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